Ensemble flood forecasting: A review

• Published in: Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 375; no. 3; pp. 613 - 626
• Main Authors: Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier B.V 15.09.2009; [Amsterdam; New York]: Elsevier; Elsevier
• Subjects: Added value; Climatology; Drivers; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; ensemble flood forecasting; Ensemble prediction system; ensemble prediction systems; EPS; Exact sciences and technology; Flood forecasting; Flood prediction; floods; Freshwater; Hydrology; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; literature reviews; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Numerical weather prediction; prediction; stream flow; Streamflow; Uncertainty; watershed hydrology; Weather; Eastern Europe; Europe; Romania; Uncertainty; Numerical weather prediction; Streamflow; Flood prediction; Ensemble prediction system; floods; river discharge; prediction; global; uncertainties; hydrographs; streamflow
• ISSN: 0022-1694; 1879-2707
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such ‘ensemble flood forecasting’ and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the ‘added value’ of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully.