Simulation of Hurricane Risk in the U.S. Using Empirical Track Model

This paper describes a new technique for modeling hurricane risk in the United States. A storm track modeling approach is employed where, for each hurricane, the entire track as it crosses the ocean and makes landfall is modeled. The central pressure is modeled as a function of the sea surface tempe...

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Published inJournal of structural engineering (New York, N.Y.) Vol. 126; no. 10; pp. 1222 - 1237
Main Authors Vickery, P. J, Skerlj, P. F, Twisdale, L. A
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Reston, VA American Society of Civil Engineers 01.10.2000
Subjects
Applied sciences
Buildings. Public works
Climatology
Climatology and bioclimatics for buildings
Exact sciences and technology
Hurricanes
Risk analysis
Simulation models
Storms
TECHNICAL PAPERS
Tracking
Wind speed
United States
North America
Atlantic Ocean
America
Empirical relation
Wind velocity
Meteorological station
Hurricane
Modeling
Coastal zone
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Summary:This paper describes a new technique for modeling hurricane risk in the United States. A storm track modeling approach is employed where, for each hurricane, the entire track as it crosses the ocean and makes landfall is modeled. The central pressure is modeled as a function of the sea surface temperature. The approach is validated through comparisons of simulated and observed key hurricane statistics (central pressure, translation speed, heading, and approach distance) along the U.S. coastline. The simulated and observed landfall rates of intense hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3 and higher) also are compared on a regional basis along the coast. The model is able to reproduce the continuously varying hurricane climatology along the U.S. coastline, and it provides a rational means for examining the hurricane risk for geographically distributed systems such as transmission lines and insurance portfolios.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 23
ISSN:0733-9445
1943-541X
DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222)