The Weight of New York City: Possible Contributions to Subsidence From Anthropogenic Sources

• Published in: Earth's future Vol. 11; no. 5
• Main Authors: Parsons, Tom, Wu, Pei‐Chin, (Matt) Wei, Meng, D'Hondt, Steven
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.05.2023; Wiley
• Subjects: Anthropogenic factors; building mass; Buildings; Built environment; Cities; Clay soils; Coasts; Construction; Deformation; Finite element method; finite element modeling; Floods; Flooring; Geodetic measurements; Geology; Global positioning systems; GPS; InSAR; Interferometric synthetic aperture radar; Load; Load distribution; Load distribution (forces); Mathematical models; Mitigation; New York City; Physical properties; Radar data; Rheological properties; Satellite data; Satellite observation; Sea level; Sea level rise; Soils; Subsidence; Synthetic aperture radar; Urban environments; urbanization; United States > US; New York City New York
• ISSN: 2328-4277; 2328-4277
• DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003465

New York City faces accelerating inundation risk from sea level rise, subsidence, and increasing storm intensity from natural and anthropogenic causes. Here we calculate a previously unquantified contribution to subsidence from the cumulative mass and downward pressure exerted by the built environment of the city. We enforce that load distribution in a multiphysics finite element model to calculate expected subsidence. Complex surface geology requires multiple rheological soil models to be applied; clay rich soils and artificial fill are calculated to have the highest post‐construction subsidence as compared with more elastic soils. Minimum and maximum calculated building subsidence ranges from 0 to 600 mm depending on soil/rock physical parameters and foundation modes. We compare modeled subsidence and surface geology to observed subsidence rates from satellite data (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System). The comparison is complicated because the urban load has accumulated across a much longer period than measured subsidence rates, and there are multiple causes of subsidence. Geodetic measurements show a mean subsidence rate of 1–2 mm/year across the city that is consistent with regional post‐glacial deformation, though we find some areas of significantly greater subsidence rates. Some of this deformation is consistent with internal consolidation of artificial fill and other soft sediment that may be exacerbated by recent building loads, though there are many possible causes. New York is emblematic of growing coastal cities all over the world that are observed to be subsiding (Wu et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098477), meaning there is a shared global challenge of mitigation against a growing inundation hazard. Plain Language Summary As coastal cities grow globally, the combination of construction densification and sea level rise imply increasing inundation hazard. The point of the paper is to raise awareness that every additional high‐rise building constructed at coastal, river, or lakefront settings could contribute to future flood risk, and that mitigation strategies may need to be included. The subsidence mapping concept helps to quantify the hazard and adds specificity to soil types and conditions. We present satellite data that show that the city is sinking 1–2 mm/tr with some areas subsiding much faster. Key Points More than 8 million people live in New York City, which is observed to be sinking 1–2 mm/year, while sea level rises We calculate the mass of all buildings in New York City and model the subsidence caused by the pressure they exert on the Earth We show detailed images of observed subsidence in New York City from satellite data