A Novel Approach to Predicting Exceptional Growth in Research

The prediction of exceptional or surprising growth in research is an issue with deep roots and few practical solutions. In this study we develop and validate a novel approach to forecasting growth in highly specific research communities. Each research community is represented by a cluster of papers....

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Bibliographic Details
Published inarXiv.org
Main Authors Klavans, Richard, Boyack, Kevin W, Murdick, Dewey A
Format Paper Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Ithaca Cornell University Library, arXiv.org 27.04.2020
Subjects
Benchmarks
Computer Science - Digital Libraries
Forecasting
Predictions
Research projects
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Summary:The prediction of exceptional or surprising growth in research is an issue with deep roots and few practical solutions. In this study we develop and validate a novel approach to forecasting growth in highly specific research communities. Each research community is represented by a cluster of papers. Multiple indicators were tested, and a composite indicator was created that predicts which research communities will experience exceptional growth over the next three years. The accuracy of this predictor was tested using hundreds of thousands of community-level forecasts and was found to exceed the performance benchmarks established in Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity's (IARPA) Foresight Using Scientific Exposition (FUSE) program in six of nine major fields in science. Furthermore, ten of eleven disciplines within the Computing Technologies field met the benchmarks. Specific detailed forecast examples are given and evaluated, and a critical evaluation of the forecasting approach is also provided.
ISSN:2331-8422
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.2004.13159