Value of information analysis in rock engineering: a case study of a tunnel project in Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory

Geoengineering prognoses are often based on data from a limited number of investigations of soil and rock mass. There is generally a desire to reduce the uncertainty in the prognoses while minimising the investigation costs. Value of Information Analysis (VOIA) is a support for decisions regarding i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inGeorisk Vol. 9; no. 1; pp. 9 - 24
Main Authors Zetterlund, Miriam S., Norberg, Tommy, Ericsson, Lars O., Norrman, Jenny, Rosén, Lars
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Taylor & Francis 02.01.2015
Subjects
Bayesian methods
construction cost
decision analyses
Geotechnical Engineering
Geoteknik
Infrastructure Engineering
Infrastrukturteknik
probabilistic site characterization and modelling
underground construction
decision analyses
Bayesian methods
construction cost
probabilistic site characterization and modelling
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Summary:Geoengineering prognoses are often based on data from a limited number of investigations of soil and rock mass. There is generally a desire to reduce the uncertainty in the prognoses while minimising the investigation costs. Value of Information Analysis (VOIA) is a support for decisions regarding investigation strategies and the aim of this paper is to present methodology for VOIA that takes into account four decision alternatives where the input data could be provided by experts. The methodology will be applied in a case study where the value of information related to an investigation borehole will be calculated. The results indicate that the value of information of the borehole is low compared with the realisation costs of the investigation. It was found that models for VOIA in underground construction projects are complex but that the analysis can be simplified with extensive use of expert knowledge and calculations of the value of perfect information as a benchmark for investigation strategies.
ISSN:1749-9518
1749-9526
1749-9526
DOI:10.1080/17499518.2014.1001401