Spatial analysis of the reliability of transport networks subject to rainfall-induced landslides

• Published in: Hydrological processes Vol. 22; no. 17; pp. 3349 - 3360
• Main Authors: Manning, L.J, Hall, J.W, Kilsby, C.G, Glendinning, S, Anderson, M.G
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 15.08.2008; Wiley
• Subjects: clay; climate; climate change; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; embankment stability; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; evapotranspiration; Exact sciences and technology; Hydrology; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; landslides; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; probability; railroads; rain; rainfall-induced landslides; statistical models; summer; transport system reliability; United Kingdom; United Kingdom; Europe; Western Europe; British Isles; rainfall-induced landslides; joints; embankments; reliability; mathematical models; degradation; rain water; evapotranspiration; slopes; networks; spatial distribution; clay; rupture; clastic rocks; climate change; rainfall; probability; climate; transport; materials properties; transport system reliability; surface water; sedimentary rocks; embankment stability; numerical models; landslides; slope stability
• ISSN: 0885-6087; 1099-1085
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6927

A methodology is developed to examine the susceptibility of a transport system to rainfall-induced landslides and is demonstrated for part of the UK rail network with regard to the potential changes that might occur with climate change. A mathematical model is given for the system failure and a statistical model is formulated for the joint distribution of rainfall at different points along the railway line. These are used to investigate the response of earth embankments along the railway line to current and future climate scenarios, including the effects of rainfall and evapotranspiration on slope hydrology and stability. It is shown that, for the system of clay embankments in question, the moisture profile through the embankment at the end of the summer months has a critical effect on system stability, both in terms of expected failure timing and probability of failure. Further, it is seen that, with changing climate, the system stability is likely to increase unless the degradation of embankment material properties, another potential effect of changed climate, is taken into account. The spatial distribution of failures is also likely to change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.