Simulating plant water availability in dry lands under climate change: A generic model of two soil layers

Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of climate change are likely to increase this risk; thus a profound knowledge of the system dynamics is crucial for evaluating management options. This applies particularly for the interactions be...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inWater resources research Vol. 45; no. 1
Main Authors Tietjen, Britta, Zehe, Erwin, Jeltsch, Florian
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 01.01.2009
Subjects
case studies
climate change
dry environmental conditions
hydrologic models
plant-water relations
precipitation
simulation models
soil water content
temperature
vegetation
Israel
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Summary:Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of climate change are likely to increase this risk; thus a profound knowledge of the system dynamics is crucial for evaluating management options. This applies particularly for the interactions between water and vegetation, which exhibit strong feedbacks. To evaluate these feedbacks and the effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, we developed a generic, process-based, spatially explicit soil moisture model of two soil layers, which can be coupled with vegetation models. A time scale relevant for ecological processes can be simulated without difficulty, and the model avoids complex parameterization with data that are unavailable for most regions of the world. We applied the model to four sites in Israel along a precipitation and soil type gradient and assessed the effects of climate change by comparing possible climatic changes with present climate conditions. The results show that in addition to temperature, the total amount of precipitation and its intra-annual variability are an important driver of soil moisture patterns. This indicates that particularly with regard to climate change, the approach of many ecological models that simulate water dynamics on an annual base is far too simple to make reliable predictions. Thus, the introduced model can serve as a valuable tool to improve present ecological models of dry lands because of its focus on the applicability and transferability.
ISSN:0043-1397
1944-7973
DOI:10.1029/2007WR006589