Analogical and Category-Based Inference: A Theoretical Integration with Bayesian Causal Models

• Published in: Journal of experimental psychology. General Vol. 139; no. 4; pp. 702 - 727
• Main Authors: Holyoak, Keith J, Lee, Hee Seung, Lu, Hongjing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States American Psychological Association 01.11.2010
• Subjects: Association Learning - physiology; Attribution Theory; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian Statistics; California; Causal Models; Concept Formation - physiology; Humans; Inferences; Judgment - physiology; Knowledge; Logical Thinking; Models, Psychological; Prediction; Probability; Undergraduate Students; California
• ISSN: 0096-3445; 1939-2222
• DOI: 10.1037/a0020488

A fundamental issue for theories of human induction is to specify constraints on potential inferences. For inferences based on shared category membership, an analogy, and/or a relational schema, it appears that the basic goal of induction is to make accurate and goal-relevant inferences that are sensitive to uncertainty. People can use source information at various levels of abstraction (including both specific instances and more general categories), coupled with prior causal knowledge, to build a causal model for a target situation, which in turn constrains inferences about the target. We propose a computational theory in the framework of Bayesian inference and test its predictions (parameter-free for the cases we consider) in a series of experiments in which people were asked to assess the probabilities of various causal predictions and attributions about a target on the basis of source knowledge about generative and preventive causes. The theory proved successful in accounting for systematic patterns of judgments about interrelated types of causal inferences, including evidence that analogical inferences are partially dissociable from overall mapping quality. (Contains 10 figures and 4 footnotes.)