Scenario Analysis on Protein Consumption and Climate Change Effects on Riverine N Export to the Baltic Sea

• Published in: Environmental science & technology Vol. 44; no. 7; pp. 2379 - 2385
• Main Authors: Eriksson Hägg, Hanna, Humborg, Christoph, Mörth, Carl-Magnus, Medina, Miguel Rodriguez, Wulff, Fredrik
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Chemical Society 01.04.2010
• Subjects: Animals; Applied sciences; Atmosphere - chemistry; Atmospheric pollution; Climate Change; Comparative analysis; Continental surface waters; Ecosystems; Effects; Environmental Processes; Exact sciences and technology; Freshwater; Humans; Models, Chemical; Motion; NATURAL SCIENCES; Natural water pollution; NATURVETENSKAP; Nitrogen; Nitrogen - analysis; Oceans and Seas; Pollution; Proteins; Proteins - metabolism; Rainwaters, run off water and others; Rivers; Rivers - chemistry; Water treatment and pollution; Gulf of Finland; Baltic Sea; Gulf of Bothnia; Northern Europe; ANE, Baltic Sea, Bothnia Gulf; ANE, Baltic Proper; ANE, Baltic Sea; ANE, Baltic Sea, Finland Gulf; Atmospheric fallout; Pollutant behavior; Runoff water; Nitrogen; Pollutant emission; Modeling; Multiple regression; Dynamical climatology; Transport process; Climate change; Vertebrata; Mammalia; Swine; Ecosystem; Watershed; Surface water; Air pollution; Livestock; Stream; Artiodactyla; Ungulata; NORTH-ATLANTIC OCEAN; TRANSPORT; DRAINAGE-BASIN; AGRICULTURE; NITROGEN BUDGETS; FUTURE; MODEL; FLUXES; LOADS; EUTROPHICATION
• ISSN: 0013-936X; 1520-5851; 1520-5851
• DOI: 10.1021/es902632p

This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (Q), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992−1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km−2). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (−27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3−72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.