Enhanced Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific During Warm Periods Over the Last Two Millennia

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 46; no. 15; pp. 9145 - 9153
• Main Authors: Zhou, Xin, Liu, Zhonghui, Yan, Qing, Zhang, Xiaolin, Yi, Liang, Yang, Wenqing, Xiang, Rong, He, Yuxin, Hu, Bangqi, Liu, Yi, Shen, Yanan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 16.08.2019; Wiley
• Subjects: Climate change; Computer simulation; Cores; Cyclones; Global temperatures; Global warming; Grain size; Hurricanes; muddy sediments; Sediments; Temperature; Temperature changes; Temperature control; Temperature effects; Tropical climate; Tropical cyclone intensities; tropical cyclone intensity; Tropical cyclones; western North Pacific; East China Sea
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083504

It is assumed that the potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) will increase with rising global temperature. The western North Pacific is one of the three principal TC centers, but TC records from the region are scarce and sometimes controversial. Here we present grain‐size distributions and element contents of sediment cores from the East China Sea, in the western North Pacific. We interpret changes in the mean grain size of the coarse fraction as a proxy for TC intensity, and we infer a linkage of TC intensity to temperature changes over the last two millennia. Supported by model simulations, our results show that TC intensity increased (decreased) during relatively warm (cool) periods, confirming the control of temperature on TC intensity on a multicentennial scale. Our results suggest that long‐term TC intensity in the western North Pacific may increase with continued global warming. Plain Language Summary It is assumed that the potential intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) will increase with rising global temperature. However, the long‐term observational trend of TC intensity, and thus its relationship with temperature changes, is debated. Here we present a 2,000‐year TC reconstruction using physical and geochemical proxies from sediments of the East China Sea in the western North Pacific. Our results suggest that TC intensity increased (decreased) during relatively warm (cool) periods on a multicentennial scale. Our finding provides improved insinto the relationship between TC intensity and changes in global temperature. Key Points The coarse fraction of Chinese coastal sediments is used as a proxy for TC intensity A 2,000‐year record of TC intensity in the western North Pacific is reconstructed TC intensity increased during relatively warm periods on a multicentennial scale