Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

• Published in: Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 558; pp. 225 - 237
• Main Authors: Destro, Elisa, Amponsah, William, Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I., Marchi, Lorenzo, Marra, Francesco, Zoccatelli, Davide, Borga, Marco
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.03.2018
• Subjects: Alps; Alps region; basins; Channel bed mobilization; Debris flows; Flash floods; Flood risk; floods; Italy; mass movement; model validation; prediction; rain; watersheds; Italy; Alps region; Alps; Flash floods; Channel bed mobilization; Debris flows; Flood risk
• ISSN: 0022-1694; 1879-2707
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.021

•We present a model that combines a spatially distributed flood response model and a debris flow initiation model.•We present a threshold index for the identification of debris flow prone catchments.•The threshold index shows high predictive skill compared to commonly used rainfall variables. The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4–5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.