Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

• Published in: Global and planetary change Vol. 197; p. 103399
• Main Authors: von der Heydt, Anna S., Ashwin, Peter, Camp, Charles D., Crucifix, Michel, Dijkstra, Henk A., Ditlevsen, Peter, Lenton, Timothy M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.02.2021
• Subjects: Climate forcing; Climate response; Climate variability; climatic factors; forces; global change; graphs; logging; meteorological data; Palaeoclimate; radiative forcing; Climate forcing; Climate response; Climate variability; Palaeoclimate
• ISSN: 0921-8181; 1872-6364
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103399

The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and the Earth system may respond to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available for such a diagram and new methodological developments in the study of the interaction between internal and forced variability over a wide range of timescales, we give a positive answer to this question. In addition, we review alternative approaches to the spectral decomposition and pose some challenges for a more detailed quantification of climate variability. •Climate variability covering timescales from years to millions of years is reviewed.•This variability arises from interaction of internal processes and external forcing.•We give an update of the climate spectrum by Mitchell (1976).•Modern approaches to data analysis and to the theory of forced systems are reviewed.