An integrated approach for addressing uncertainty in the delineation of groundwater management areas

• Published in: Journal of contaminant hydrology Vol. 148; pp. 12 - 24
• Main Authors: Sousa, Marcelo R., Frind, Emil O., Rudolph, David L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier B.V 01.05.2013; Elsevier
• Subjects: Calibration; Capture zones; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Exact sciences and technology; Geographic Mapping; Groundwater - analysis; Hydrogeology; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; Modelling; Models, Theoretical; Ontario; Pollution, environment geology; Precautionary approach; Source water protection; Uncertainty; Water Pollution, Chemical - analysis; Water Pollution, Chemical - prevention & control; Water resources; Canada; Ontario; Eastern Canada; Source water protection; Uncertainty; Modelling; Capture zones; Precautionary approach; models; maps; plumes; probability; ground water; protection; North America; spatial distribution; heterogeneity; aquifers; water resource management; calibration; uncertainties
• ISSN: 0169-7722; 1873-6009
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2013.02.004

Uncertainty is a pervasive but often poorly understood factor in the delineation of wellhead protection areas (WHPAs), which can discourage water managers and practitioners from relying on model results. To make uncertainty more understandable and thereby remove a barrier to the acceptance of models in the WHPA context, we present a simple approach for dealing with uncertainty. The approach considers two spatial scales for representing uncertainty: local and global. At the local scale, uncertainties are assumed to be due to heterogeneities, and a capture zone is expressed in terms of a capture probability plume. At the global scale, uncertainties are expressed through scenario analysis, using a limited number of physically realistic scenarios. The two scales are integrated by using the precautionary principle to merge the individual capture probability plumes corresponding to the different scenarios. The approach applies to both wellhead protection and the mitigation of contaminated aquifers, or in general, to groundwater management areas. An example relates to the WHPA for a supply well located in a complex glacial aquifer system in southwestern Ontario, where we focus on uncertainty due to the spatial distributions of recharge. While different recharge scenarios calibrate equally well to the same data, they result in different capture probability plumes. Using the precautionary approach, the different plumes are merged into two types of maps delineating groundwater management areas for either wellhead protection or aquifer mitigation. The study shows that calibrations may be non-unique, and that finding a “best” model on the basis of the calibration fit may not be possible. ► A method to address uncertainty in the delineation of well capture zones is proposed. ► Uncertainty is addressed in two scales: local and global. ► Capture probability (local scale) and multi-model analysis (global scale) are used. ► Two types of management areas are delineated: protection and mitigation.