MINERVA-DM: A Memory Processes Model for Judgments of Likelihood

Describes a new theory of likelihood judgments based on D. L. Hintzman's (1984, 1988) MINERVA2 memory model. The model, MINERVA-DM (decision making), accounts for a wide range of likelihood-judgment phenomena. Extends the model to expert-probability judgment and shows how MINERVA-DM can account...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPsychological review Vol. 106; no. 1; p. 180
Main Authors Dougherty, Michael R. P, Gettys, Charles F, Ogden, Eve E
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 1999
Subjects
Cognitive Processes
Decision Making
Expertise
Heuristics
Mathematical Models
Memory
Prediction
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Summary:Describes a new theory of likelihood judgments based on D. L. Hintzman's (1984, 1988) MINERVA2 memory model. The model, MINERVA-DM (decision making), accounts for a wide range of likelihood-judgment phenomena. Extends the model to expert-probability judgment and shows how MINERVA-DM can account for both good and poor calibration (overconfidence) as a function of varying degrees of expertise. (Author/GCP)
ISSN:0033-295X
DOI:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.180