An investigation of seismicity for the Central Anatolia region, Turkey

• Published in: Journal of seismology Vol. 18; no. 3; pp. 345 - 356
• Main Authors: Özmen, Bülent, Bayrak, Erdem, Bayrak, Yusuf
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.07.2014; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Earthquakes; Earthquakes, seismology; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Exact sciences and technology; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hydrogeology; Internal geophysics; Latitude; Least squares method; Mathematical models; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Original Article; Poisson distribution; Seismic activity; Seismic phenomena; Seismicity; Seismology; Spatial distribution; Statistics; Structural Geology; Middle East; Turkey; Anatolia; Asia; Poisson method; Magnitude–frequency relation; Central Anatolia; Seismicity; models; probability; latitude; coordinates; least-squares; earthquakes; spatial distribution; frequency; magnitude-frequency relation; active faults; seismicity; statistics
• ISSN: 1383-4649; 1573-157X
• DOI: 10.1007/s10950-013-9411-2

The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “ a ” and “ b ” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw ≥ 4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.