Multi-step prediction of strong earthquake ground motions and seismic responses of SDOF systems based on EMD-ELM method

• Published in: Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering (1984) Vol. 85; pp. 117 - 129
• Main Authors: Yang, Dixiong, Yang, Kaisheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2016
• Subjects: Acceleration; Decomposition; Dynamical systems; Dynamics; Earthquake engineering; Earthquake ground motions; Earthquake prediction; Earthquakes; Empirical mode decomposition; Extreme learning machine; Ground motion; Multi-step prediction; Seismic responses of SDOF systems; Time series prediction; Empirical mode decomposition; Time series prediction; Earthquake ground motions; Multi-step prediction; Extreme learning machine; Seismic responses of SDOF systems
• ISSN: 0267-7261; 1879-341X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2016.03.015

This paper proposes a new multi-step prediction method of EMD-ELM (empirical mode decomposition-extreme learning machine) to achieve the short-term prediction of strong earthquake ground motions. Firstly, the acceleration time histories of near-fault ground motions with nonstationary property are decomposed into several components of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different characteristic scales by the technique of EMD. Subsequently, the ELM method is utilized to predict the IMF components. Moreover, the predicted values of each IMF component are superimposed, and the short-term prediction of ground motions is attained with low error. The predicted results of near-fault acceleration records demonstrate that the EMD-ELM method can realize multi-step prediction of acceleration records with relatively high accuracy. Finally, the elastic and inelastic acceleration, velocity and displacement responses of single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems are also predicted with satisfactory accuracy by EMD-ELM method. •We propose a new EMD-ELM method to achieve multi-step prediction of ground motions.•Acceleration time histories are decomposed into several IMFs by EMD.•The ELM method is then utilized to predict the IMF components.•Seismic responses of SDOF systems are also predicted with satisfactory accuracy.