Evolution-induced Catastrophe and its Predictability

-Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disor...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPure and applied geophysics Vol. 157; no. 11-12; pp. 1945 - 1957
Main Authors Wei, Y J, Xia, M F, Ke, F J, Yin, X C, Bai, Y L
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel Springer Nature B.V 01.12.2000
Subjects
Brittleness
Catastrophic failure analysis
Earthquake prediction
Earthquakes
Failure
Geophysics
Mathematical models
Media
Plate tectonics
Predictions
Searching
Seismic activity
Seismic phenomena
Seismology
Simulation
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Summary:-Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.
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ISSN:0033-4553
1420-9136
DOI:10.1007/PL00001069