Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763

• Published in: International journal of climatology Vol. 37; no. S1; pp. 30 - 44
• Main Authors: Schwander, Mikhaël, Brönnimann, Stefan, Delaygue, Gilles, Rohrer, Marco, Auchmann, Renate, Brugnara, Yuri
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 01.08.2017; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc; Royal Meteorological Society
• Subjects: atmospheric circulation; Classification; Climate; Climate models; Climatology; Cluster analysis; Components; Computation; Daily; Daily weather; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Europe; instrumental data; Mean sea level; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Methods; Pressure; Reconstruction; Reliability; Sea level; Sea level pressure; Sea surface temperature; Statistical analysis; Surface temperature; synoptic climatology; Temperature effects; Variability; Weather; Weather patterns; Weather types
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.4974

ABSTRACT Weather type classifications (WTCs) are a simple tool to analyse variations in weather patterns. Long series of WTCs could be used to address decadal changes in weather as a basis for studying changes in variability or extremes or for addressing contributions of sea‐surface temperature or external forcings using climate models. However, there is no long series of daily objective weather types (WTs). A new method (Shortest Mahalanobis Distance, SMD) using daily European weather data is developed to reconstruct WTCs back in time. Here the SMD method is applied on the Cluster Analysis of Principal Components (CAP9) classification used by MeteoSwiss. The CAP9 daily WT time series (computed with ERA‐40) is used as reference over the 1958–1998 period. Daily data (temperature, mean sea level pressure and pressure tendency) from 13 European stations covering the period 1763–2009 are used for the reconstruction. The reference CAP9 is reduced from nine to seven types so the new daily WTC is called CAP7. As an assessment, CAP7 is compared to the original classification CAP9 and to the same WTs computed with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR and 20CRv2c). Over the reference period up to 90% of all the daily WTs can be correctly reproduced in the new WTC compared to the original series, with higher reliability in winter than in summer. In addition, the reliability of the classification is increasing from 1763 onward. The annual occurrence of each type reveals some trends, mostly a decrease in the number of cyclonic days and an increase of cyclonic days.