A systematic approach to assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability of water availability to climate change in Europe
Making use of ensemble climate modeling systems and multimodel simulations of climate projections calls for a systematic approach in impact studies. In this study the response surface method is introduced to systematically, consistently, and objectively examine impacts of climate change on water ava...
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| Published in | Water resources research Vol. 47; no. 2 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Washington
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.02.2011
John Wiley & Sons, Inc |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0043-1397 1944-7973 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2009WR008516 |
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| Abstract | Making use of ensemble climate modeling systems and multimodel simulations of climate projections calls for a systematic approach in impact studies. In this study the response surface method is introduced to systematically, consistently, and objectively examine impacts of climate change on water availability, subject to selected impact thresholds. The response surface hereby represents the sensitivity of water availability to a broad range of possible climatic change, onto which vulnerability thresholds are superimposed. Their exceedance is assessed by additionally superimposing climate change projections onto the surface. With this method, 18 European river basins are ranked according to their sensitivity to climate change (analyzing the response surface itself). The use of climate change projections from six regional climate models for the year 2100 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emissions scenario in combination with societal vulnerability thresholds then enables a vulnerability ranking of these basins. Overall, a strong climate sensitivity of the Nordic basins is found on the basis of their mainly snow‐dominated flow regime. When looking at the vulnerability, however, southern European basins together with some central European basins are highest in the ranking because of the violation of both low flow and water stress thresholds. |
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| AbstractList | Making use of ensemble climate modeling systems and multimodel simulations of climate projections calls for a systematic approach in impact studies. In this study the response surface method is introduced to systematically, consistently, and objectively examine impacts of climate change on water availability, subject to selected impact thresholds. The response surface hereby represents the sensitivity of water availability to a broad range of possible climatic change, onto which vulnerability thresholds are superimposed. Their exceedance is assessed by additionally superimposing climate change projections onto the surface. With this method, 18 European river basins are ranked according to their sensitivity to climate change (analyzing the response surface itself). The use of climate change projections from six regional climate models for the year 2100 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emissions scenario in combination with societal vulnerability thresholds then enables a vulnerability ranking of these basins. Overall, a strong climate sensitivity of the Nordic basins is found on the basis of their mainly snow‐dominated flow regime. When looking at the vulnerability, however, southern European basins together with some central European basins are highest in the ranking because of the violation of both low flow and water stress thresholds. |
| Author | Alcamo, Joseph Weiß, Martina |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Martina surname: Weiß fullname: Weiß, Martina email: weiss@cesr.de organization: Center for Environmental Systems Research,, Kassel,, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Joseph surname: Alcamo fullname: Alcamo, Joseph organization: Center for Environmental Systems Research,, Kassel,, Germany |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhazmat_2014_09_008 crossref_primary_10_1038_nclimate1081 crossref_primary_10_1029_2018WR023623 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10113_018_1421_8 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2014_09_008 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_crm_2022_100466 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2017_08_004 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10113_013_0564_x crossref_primary_10_1029_2021WR030035 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2013_10_003 |
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| Snippet | Making use of ensemble climate modeling systems and multimodel simulations of climate projections calls for a systematic approach in impact studies. In this... |
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| SubjectTerms | Cattle Climate change climate change impact Climate models Cooling Earth Environmental impact Europe Groundwater Human influences hydrological modeling Hydrology Impact analysis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Low flow Manufacturing Precipitation River basins Rivers Runoff sensitivity analysis Stream flow Time series Vegetation Water availability Water stress WaterGAP |
| Title | A systematic approach to assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability of water availability to climate change in Europe |
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