River Runoff in European Russia under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

• Published in: Water resources Vol. 50; no. 4; pp. 543 - 556
• Main Author: Kalugin, A. S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Moscow Pleiades Publishing 01.08.2023; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Annual runoff; Anomalies; Aquatic Pollution; Basins; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Discharge measurement; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Gaging stations; Global climate; Global climate models; Global warming; Hydrogeology; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Hydrology/Water Resources; Hydrometeorological regime; Hydrometeorology; Mathematical Models in Solving Problems of Land Hydrology; Modelling; Numerical experiments; River discharge; River flow; River runoff; Rivers; Runoff; Snowmelt; Snowmelt runoff; Stream discharge; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Weather stations; Russia; Volga; Don; global warming; Pechora and Kuban; runoff formation; hydrological models; European Russia; Northern Dvina
• ISSN: 0097-8078; 1608-344X
• DOI: 10.1134/S0097807823040127

The ECOMAG hydrological model was used to evaluate runoff characteristics in the basins of the major rivers in European Russia: the Volga, Don, Northern Dvina, Pechora, and Kuban. The models of runoff formation for various hydrometric gauging stations in these basins were calibrated using data of weather station observations. Next, the input data were represented by the data of an ensemble of global climate models for assessing the regional hydrometeorological regime at the realization of a scenario of global warming by 1.5 and 2°C in the XXI century relative to the preindustrial values. The reproduction of the annual and seasonal runoff by data of climatic models was evaluated by comparison with observation data. According to the results of numerical experiments at global warming by 1.5 and 2°C, the values of the relative changes in river runoff in European Russia increase from N to S and from E to W, i.e., the hydrological systems under milder climate were found to be more sensitive to changes in the meteorological characteristics. The estimation of runoff anomalies in the European Russia showed the following common features: an increase in the winter runoff in the northern rivers and in the Volga basin, a decrease in the spring snowmelt runoff in the Northern Dvina, Volga, and Don, a decrease in the summer–autumn runoff of all studied rivers with various intensity. In this case, the annual runoff of the Pechora will show a positive trend, and that of the Northern Dvina, Volga, Don, and Kuban, a negative trend.