EEMD-ARIMA在干旱预测中的应用 ——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

TV93%P338; 近年来,国内干旱灾害频发,影响了正常的农业生产和经济发展,因此精确预测干旱发生具有重要意义.基于1960-2019年新疆维吾尔自治区气象站点的逐日降水量数据,计算了1、3、6、9、12及24个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),利用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)和集合经验模态分解(EEMD)-ARIMA组合模型,分别对多尺度的SPI进行预测,并通过均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和决定系数(R2)对预测结果进行评价.结果表明:EEMD-ARIMA组合模型的预测结果与新疆年鉴记录情况较为一致,能够用于对干旱进行预测;组合模型能够有效减少序列的非平稳性,...

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Published in中国农村水利水电 no. 7; pp. 1 - 11
Main Authors 许德合, 丁严, 张棋, 黄会平
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 华北水利水电大学,郑州450000 2021
Subjects
干旱预测
ARIMA
EEMD-ARIMA组合模型
SPI
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Abstract TV93%P338; 近年来,国内干旱灾害频发,影响了正常的农业生产和经济发展,因此精确预测干旱发生具有重要意义.基于1960-2019年新疆维吾尔自治区气象站点的逐日降水量数据,计算了1、3、6、9、12及24个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),利用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)和集合经验模态分解(EEMD)-ARIMA组合模型,分别对多尺度的SPI进行预测,并通过均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和决定系数(R2)对预测结果进行评价.结果表明:EEMD-ARIMA组合模型的预测结果与新疆年鉴记录情况较为一致,能够用于对干旱进行预测;组合模型能够有效减少序列的非平稳性,相较单一模型能更好地预测SPI序列;EEMD-ARIMA组合模型在干旱预测中具有明显优势,在各时间尺度,组合模型预测精度均高于单一模型,能更准确地进行预测.
AbstractList TV93%P338; 近年来,国内干旱灾害频发,影响了正常的农业生产和经济发展,因此精确预测干旱发生具有重要意义.基于1960-2019年新疆维吾尔自治区气象站点的逐日降水量数据,计算了1、3、6、9、12及24个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),利用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)和集合经验模态分解(EEMD)-ARIMA组合模型,分别对多尺度的SPI进行预测,并通过均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和决定系数(R2)对预测结果进行评价.结果表明:EEMD-ARIMA组合模型的预测结果与新疆年鉴记录情况较为一致,能够用于对干旱进行预测;组合模型能够有效减少序列的非平稳性,相较单一模型能更好地预测SPI序列;EEMD-ARIMA组合模型在干旱预测中具有明显优势,在各时间尺度,组合模型预测精度均高于单一模型,能更准确地进行预测.
Author 张棋
黄会平
许德合
丁严
AuthorAffiliation 华北水利水电大学,郑州450000
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XU De-he
DING Yan
ZHANG Qi
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ARIMA
EEMD-ARIMA组合模型
SPI
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Title EEMD-ARIMA在干旱预测中的应用 ——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例
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