Efficiency gains in commodity forecasting using disaggregated levels versus more aggregated predictions

• Main Authors: Pena-Levano, Luis M, Foster, Kenneth
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: 2016
• Edition: 333
• Series: 9413; Paper
• Subjects: Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; commodity; dissagregation; efficiency; forecast; price; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty

This study evaluates the efficiency gains in forecasting of using disaggregated data in time series modeling compared to high levels of aggregation. This represents an important topic for agribusinessmen and farmers because it could provide them with insights on how to obtain more accurate predictio...