Estimating Brazilian states’ demands for intensive care unit and clinical hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic: development of a predictive model

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The fragility of healthcare systems worldwide had not been exposed by any pandemic until now. The lack of integrated methods for bed capacity planning compromises the effectiveness of public and private hospitals’ services. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pand...

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Published inSão Paulo medical journal
Main Authors Almeida, João Flávio de Freitas, Conceição, Samuel Vieira, Pinto, Luiz Ricardo, Horta, Cláudia Júlia Guimarães, Magalhães, Virgínia Silva, Campos, Francisco Carlos Cardoso de
Format Journal Article
LanguagePortuguese
Published Associação Paulista de Medicina - APM 2021
Subjects
MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
COVID-19 pandemic
Compartmental model
Coronavirus infections
Pandemics
Bed occupancy
Public health administration
Hospital bed capacity
COVID-19 virus disease
Population dynamics
Public health planning
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Abstract ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The fragility of healthcare systems worldwide had not been exposed by any pandemic until now. The lack of integrated methods for bed capacity planning compromises the effectiveness of public and private hospitals’ services. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provision of intensive care unit and clinical beds for Brazilian states, using an integrated model. DESIGN AND SETTING: Experimental study applying healthcare informatics to data on COVID-19 cases from the official electronic platform of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: A predictive model based on the historical records of Brazilian states was developed to estimate the need for hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The proposed model projected in advance that there was a lack of 22,771 hospital beds for Brazilian states, of which 38.95% were ICU beds, and 61.05% were clinical beds. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach provides valuable information to help hospital managers anticipate actions for improving healthcare system capacity.
AbstractList ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The fragility of healthcare systems worldwide had not been exposed by any pandemic until now. The lack of integrated methods for bed capacity planning compromises the effectiveness of public and private hospitals’ services. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provision of intensive care unit and clinical beds for Brazilian states, using an integrated model. DESIGN AND SETTING: Experimental study applying healthcare informatics to data on COVID-19 cases from the official electronic platform of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: A predictive model based on the historical records of Brazilian states was developed to estimate the need for hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The proposed model projected in advance that there was a lack of 22,771 hospital beds for Brazilian states, of which 38.95% were ICU beds, and 61.05% were clinical beds. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach provides valuable information to help hospital managers anticipate actions for improving healthcare system capacity.
Author Almeida, João Flávio de Freitas
Horta, Cláudia Júlia Guimarães
Campos, Francisco Carlos Cardoso de
Pinto, Luiz Ricardo
Conceição, Samuel Vieira
Magalhães, Virgínia Silva
AuthorAffiliation Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Fundação João Pinheiro
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
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  givenname: João Flávio de Freitas
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  fullname: Almeida, João Flávio de Freitas
  organization: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
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  givenname: Samuel Vieira
  surname: Conceição
  fullname: Conceição, Samuel Vieira
  organization: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
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  givenname: Luiz Ricardo
  surname: Pinto
  fullname: Pinto, Luiz Ricardo
  organization: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
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  givenname: Cláudia Júlia Guimarães
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  givenname: Virgínia Silva
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  givenname: Francisco Carlos Cardoso de
  surname: Campos
  fullname: Campos, Francisco Carlos Cardoso de
  organization: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
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Keywords COVID-19 pandemic
Compartmental model
Coronavirus infections
Pandemics
Bed occupancy
Public health administration
Hospital bed capacity
COVID-19 virus disease
Population dynamics
Public health planning
Language Portuguese
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Title Estimating Brazilian states’ demands for intensive care unit and clinical hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic: development of a predictive model
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