Evaluation and statistical correction of area-based heat index forecasts that drive a heatwave warning service
This study evaluates the performance of the area-based, district heatwave forecasts that drive the Australian heatwave warning service. The analysis involves using a recently developed approach of scoring multicategorical forecasts using the FIxed Risk Multicategorical (FIRM) scoring framework. Addi...
Saved in:
Published in | arXiv.org |
---|---|
Main Authors | , |
Format | Paper |
Language | English |
Published |
Ithaca
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
15.07.2024
|
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
Cover
Loading…
Abstract | This study evaluates the performance of the area-based, district heatwave forecasts that drive the Australian heatwave warning service. The analysis involves using a recently developed approach of scoring multicategorical forecasts using the FIxed Risk Multicategorical (FIRM) scoring framework. Additionally, we quantify the stability of the district forecasts between forecast updates. Notably, at longer lead times, a discernible overforecast bias exists that leads to issuing severe and extreme heatwave district forecasts too frequently. Consequently, at shorter lead times forecast heatwave categories are frequently downgraded with subsequent revisions. To address these issues, we demonstrate how isotonic regression can be used to conditionally bias correct the district forecasts. Finally, using synthetic experiments, we illustrate that even if an area warning is derived from a perfectly calibrated gridded forecast, the area warning will be biased in most situations. We show how these biases can also be corrected using isotonic regression which could lead to a better heatwave warning service. Importantly, the evaluation and bias correction approaches demonstrated in this paper are relevant to forecast parameters other than heat indices. |
---|---|
AbstractList | This study evaluates the performance of the area-based, district heatwave forecasts that drive the Australian heatwave warning service. The analysis involves using a recently developed approach of scoring multicategorical forecasts using the FIxed Risk Multicategorical (FIRM) scoring framework. Additionally, we quantify the stability of the district forecasts between forecast updates. Notably, at longer lead times, a discernible overforecast bias exists that leads to issuing severe and extreme heatwave district forecasts too frequently. Consequently, at shorter lead times forecast heatwave categories are frequently downgraded with subsequent revisions. To address these issues, we demonstrate how isotonic regression can be used to conditionally bias correct the district forecasts. Finally, using synthetic experiments, we illustrate that even if an area warning is derived from a perfectly calibrated gridded forecast, the area warning will be biased in most situations. We show how these biases can also be corrected using isotonic regression which could lead to a better heatwave warning service. Importantly, the evaluation and bias correction approaches demonstrated in this paper are relevant to forecast parameters other than heat indices. |
Author | Loveday, Nicholas Carroll, Maree |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Nicholas surname: Loveday fullname: Loveday, Nicholas – sequence: 2 givenname: Maree surname: Carroll fullname: Carroll, Maree |
BookMark | eNqNissKwjAQRYMo-PyHAdeFmNTHXip-gHsZ26mNlIlm0tbPN4gf4Ooe7jlzNWbPNFIzY-0mO-TGTNVK5KG1Nru92W7tTHHRY9thdJ4BuQKJiSW6ElsofQhUfpWvAQNhdkOhChrCCI4rekPtU4ISBWKTziq4ngC_xYAJBwzs-A5CoXclLdWkxlZo9duFWp-Ky_GcPYN_dSTx-vBd4KSuVh82ea73Zmf_qz4xFExl |
ContentType | Paper |
Copyright | 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
Copyright_xml | – notice: 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
DBID | 8FE 8FG ABJCF ABUWG AFKRA AZQEC BENPR BGLVJ CCPQU DWQXO HCIFZ L6V M7S PIMPY PQEST PQQKQ PQUKI PRINS PTHSS |
DatabaseName | ProQuest SciTech Collection ProQuest Technology Collection Materials Science & Engineering Collection ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) ProQuest Central ProQuest Central Essentials AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central Technology Collection ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Central SciTech Premium Collection (Proquest) (PQ_SDU_P3) ProQuest Engineering Collection Engineering Database Publicly Available Content Database ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE) ProQuest One Academic ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition ProQuest Central China Engineering Collection |
DatabaseTitle | Publicly Available Content Database Engineering Database Technology Collection ProQuest Central Essentials ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) SciTech Premium Collection ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Technology Collection ProQuest SciTech Collection ProQuest Central China ProQuest Central ProQuest Engineering Collection ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition ProQuest Central Korea Materials Science & Engineering Collection ProQuest One Academic Engineering Collection |
DatabaseTitleList | Publicly Available Content Database |
Database_xml | – sequence: 1 dbid: 8FG name: ProQuest Technology Collection url: https://search.proquest.com/technologycollection1 sourceTypes: Aggregation Database |
DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
Discipline | Physics |
EISSN | 2331-8422 |
Genre | Working Paper/Pre-Print |
GroupedDBID | 8FE 8FG ABJCF ABUWG AFKRA ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AZQEC BENPR BGLVJ CCPQU DWQXO FRJ HCIFZ L6V M7S M~E PIMPY PQEST PQQKQ PQUKI PRINS PTHSS |
ID | FETCH-proquest_journals_30814407263 |
IEDL.DBID | 8FG |
IngestDate | Thu Oct 10 22:54:11 EDT 2024 |
IsOpenAccess | true |
IsPeerReviewed | false |
IsScholarly | false |
Language | English |
LinkModel | DirectLink |
MergedId | FETCHMERGED-proquest_journals_30814407263 |
OpenAccessLink | https://www.proquest.com/docview/3081440726?pq-origsite=%requestingapplication% |
PQID | 3081440726 |
PQPubID | 2050157 |
ParticipantIDs | proquest_journals_3081440726 |
PublicationCentury | 2000 |
PublicationDate | 20240715 |
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2024-07-15 |
PublicationDate_xml | – month: 07 year: 2024 text: 20240715 day: 15 |
PublicationDecade | 2020 |
PublicationPlace | Ithaca |
PublicationPlace_xml | – name: Ithaca |
PublicationTitle | arXiv.org |
PublicationYear | 2024 |
Publisher | Cornell University Library, arXiv.org |
Publisher_xml | – name: Cornell University Library, arXiv.org |
SSID | ssj0002672553 |
Score | 3.5597992 |
SecondaryResourceType | preprint |
Snippet | This study evaluates the performance of the area-based, district heatwave forecasts that drive the Australian heatwave warning service. The analysis involves... |
SourceID | proquest |
SourceType | Aggregation Database |
SubjectTerms | Bias Performance evaluation Risk analysis Statistical analysis Warning |
Title | Evaluation and statistical correction of area-based heat index forecasts that drive a heatwave warning service |
URI | https://www.proquest.com/docview/3081440726 |
hasFullText | 1 |
inHoldings | 1 |
isFullTextHit | |
isPrint | |
link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwfV3PS8MwFH7oiuDNn_hjjoBeg6xNsvUkKK1D2BiisNtImhQP0s6lspt_u-9l3TwIuyVpKWlpv-_la973AO5EabVUqeVUGIkLmSbcOFmGrhlgfG0NJQqPJ2r0Ll5mctYKbr7dVrnBxADUti5II79PkLsEuXmph8UXp6pR9He1LaGxD1GfnPAoUzx_3mossRpgxJz8g9nAHfkRRFO9cMtj2HPVCRyELZeFP4Uq2xptM1zOM0rtCa7J-pMVVDMjZBywumQaAztOdGMZQScLDocMo01XaN941nzgoF0ibjEdzlhpbK7WmgfzazQ4g9s8e3sa8c0k5-1r5Od_N52cQ6eqK3cBDD87MzRIrS41IjbSaCXlkFy2nXBloi6hu-tKV7sPX8NhjLxN8mVfdqHTLL_dDfJuY3rh4fYgeswm01fsjX-yX_WYj9U |
link.rule.ids | 786,790,12792,21416,33406,33777,43633,43838 |
linkProvider | ProQuest |
linkToHtml | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwfV1dT4MwFL1RiNE3P-PH1Cb62hgH7eDJRMOCupHFzGRvpIUSHwxsgNnf996OzQeTvVFKGtrAOZdD77kA936RKyHDnFNhJO6L0OPaiMI29QDj61xTovA4kfGn_zYTs05wa7ptlWtMtECdVxlp5A8ecpdPbl7yab7gVDWK_q52JTR2wSXLzcAB9zlKJh8blaUvBxgze_-A1rLH8BDciZqb-gh2THkMe3bTZdacQBltrLYZftAzSu6xvsnqm2VUNcPmHLCqYApDO06EkzMCT2Y9DhnGmyZTTduw9gtP5jUiF1P2iqXCw-VK9WDNCg9O4W4YTV9ivr7JtHuQmvRv2t4ZOGVVmnNg-OLpQCO5mlD7fS20kkIE5LNtfFN48gJ620a63N59C_vxdDxKR6_J-xUc9JHFScx8FD1w2vrHXCMLt_qmW-pfXcWRYQ |
openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Evaluation+and+statistical+correction+of+area-based+heat+index+forecasts+that+drive+a+heatwave+warning+service&rft.jtitle=arXiv.org&rft.au=Loveday%2C+Nicholas&rft.au=Carroll%2C+Maree&rft.date=2024-07-15&rft.pub=Cornell+University+Library%2C+arXiv.org&rft.eissn=2331-8422 |