10 Beef and veal

• Published in: Agricultural commodity statistics pp. 66 - 74
• Main Author: Read, Alistair
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Canberra Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, ABARES 01.09.2023
• Subjects: Agricultural commodities; Availability; Beef; Cattle; Demand; Dipoles; El Nino; Exports; Pasture; Prices; Productivity; Slaughter; Supply & demand; Veal; United States > US; China; Brazil; Malaysia; Australia; Indonesia
• ISSN: 1839-8235

Key points o Gross value of production to fall by 4% to $14.3 billion in 2023-24 driven by lower prices. o Domestic production volumes to increase as drier seasonal conditions reduce pasture availability and increase turn-off. o Global beef supply to increase slightly driven by rising beef production in Australia and Brazil. o Global beef demand to remain relatively stable. The expected onset of both El Nino conditions in the second half of 2023, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event from August are expected to generate drier seasonal conditions across Australia (see Seasonal Conditions for more context). Falling Australian saleyard prices and shipping costs will reduce the price of live cattle exports and help support demand from key export partners such as Indonesia (assuming a timely resolution of recent export suspensions) and Vietnam. Several factors are expected to constrain further live feeder/slaughter export growth: o Demand from Indonesia remains subdued; consumers are spending less and trading down into cheaper products such as Indian buffalo meat and chilled products. o Export availability of animals in Northern Australia, particularly in the Northern Territory is relatively low.