Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of Covid-19: A Panel-Model Analysis

• Published in: Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods Vol. 12; no. 2
• Main Authors: Eduardo Lima Campos, Rubens Penha Cysne, Madureira, Alexandre
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Christchurch Scientific Press International Limited 01.01.2023
• Subjects: Coronaviruses; COVID-19 vaccines; Immunization; Social distancing
• ISSN: 2241-0384

This work discusses the impact of social distancing and vaccination on the monthly variation rate of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 around the world. A statistical panel-regression model was applied to daily data for 131 countries from March, 2020 to December, 2021. The setting of suitable control variables was essential to achieve reliable results. We found, as a possible consequence of strict social distancing, a decrease of around 5.5 percentage points in the growth rate of both new cases and deaths, before vaccination. The possible impact of progress in vaccination, in 2021 was even stronger: a decrease of 9 and 12 percentage points on the growth of new cases and deaths, respectively. As a final conclusion, our dataset and the method employed did not allow to exclude either the hypothesis that strict social distancing was an important measure to control the pandemic before the advent of vaccines, nor the conjuncture that the impact of vaccination has been stronger, mainly with regard to deaths.