A New Risk Prediction Model for Detecting Endoscopic Activity of Ulcerative Colitis

• Published in: Gut and liver Vol. 18; no. 5; pp. 834 - 844
• Main Authors: Guoyu Guan, Sangdan Zhuoga, Songbai Zheng, Kangqiao Xu, Tingwen Weng, Wensi Qian, Danian Ji, Xiaofeng Yu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 대한간학회 30.09.2024
• Subjects: Blood marker; Endoscopy; Fecal marker; Nomograms; Ulcerative colitis
• ISSN: 1976-2283

Background/Aims: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an incurable, relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease that increases steadily. Mucosal healing has become the primary therapeutic objective for UC. Nevertheless, endoscopic assessments are invasive, expensive, time-consuming, and inconvenient. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a noninvasive predictive model to monitor endoscopic activity in patients with UC. Methods: Clinical data of 198 adult patients with UC were collected from January 2016 to August 2022 at Huadong Hospital, China. Results: Patients with UC were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%, n=138) and the validation cohort (30%, n=60). The receiver operating characteristic curve value for the training group was 0.858 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.781 to 0.936), whereas it was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.731 to 0.960) for the validation group. The calibration curve employed the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p>0.05) to demonstrate the consistency between the predicted and the actual probabilities in the nomogram of these two groups. The decision curve analysis validated that the nomogram had clinical usefulness. Conclusions: The nomogram, which incorporated activated partial thromboplastin time, fecal occult blood test, β2-globulin level, and fibrinogen degradation products, served as a prospective tool for evaluating UC activity in clinical practices. (Gut Liver 2024;18:834-844)