Reliability assessment in complex systems using updated fault rate estimation /Evaluation de confiabilidad en sistemas complejos mediante la estimacion actualizada de la tasa de fallas

• Published in: Vision Electronica Vol. 18; no. 1
• Main Authors: Aguirre-Vargas, Sebastian, Holguin-Londono, Mauricio, Holguin-Londono, German A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Universidad Distrital Francisco Jose de Caldas 01.01.2024
• Subjects: Colombia; Electric power systems; Electric transformers; Electrical engineering; Engineering research; Reliability (Engineering); Colombia
• DOI: 10.14483/issn.2248-4728
• ISSN: 1909-9746

The expansion and operation of the electrical network plays a significant role in ensuring service quality. Keeping the components operational requires an integrated, optimal and sustainable system focused on reliability analysis to ensure the efficiency and availability in complex systems. This paper explores a methodology to improve reliability analyses on power system components, using univariate data analysis and time series regression to develop an updated fault rate estimation. An exploratory data analysis is developed to understand the behavior and uncertain nature of the variables under study. The Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) model and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are implemented to analyze and estimate the behavior of the failure rate of some electrical distribution transformers over time, where the variability of reliability is observed as the failure rate varies over time, due to external factors.