Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030

As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, th...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors Burt, Alison, Hughes, Barry, Milante, Gary
Format Publication
LanguageEnglish
Published World Bank Group, Washington, DC 01.08.2014
Subjects
Online AccessGet more information

Cover

Loading…
Abstract As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet achievable -- but what about the prospects for fragile states in which an increasingly large share of the global poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)? This paper presents a base case scenario with the International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states. This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a 20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries. The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions and improved security in fragile states and of a set of poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on security and good governance to be effective. The resulting aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication.
AbstractList As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet achievable -- but what about the prospects for fragile states in which an increasingly large share of the global poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)? This paper presents a base case scenario with the International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states. This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a 20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries. The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions and improved security in fragile states and of a set of poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on security and good governance to be effective. The resulting aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication.
Author Hughes, Barry
Milante, Gary
Burt, Alison
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  fullname: Burt, Alison
– sequence: 2
  fullname: Hughes, Barry
– sequence: 3
  fullname: Milante, Gary
BookMark eNqFi00LgkAQQPdQh75-QjB4Fzazgq6heJSsY8hk4zogu7E7Bf77DLp3evAeb64m1lmaqVvm8cENClsDpXuTlwHYQu7RcE9QCQqFI5TehSc1EsC1cCZsuu8gHUFUsOniAq0ZTTSOLxa4D5DorV6qaYt9oNWPC7XOs8upiFt0NRrPob5Wid6ke53qwy751z8xFDgC
ContentType Publication
Copyright Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7002http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/CC BY 3.0 IGO
Copyright_xml – notice: Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7002http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/CC BY 3.0 IGO
DBID FBQ
DatabaseName AGRIS
DatabaseTitleList
Database_xml – sequence: 1
  dbid: FBQ
  name: AGRIS
  url: http://www.fao.org/agris/Centre.asp?Menu_1ID=DB&Menu_2ID=DB1&Language=EN&Content=http://www.fao.org/agris/search?Language=EN
  sourceTypes: Publisher
DeliveryMethod no_fulltext_linktorsrc
Discipline Economics
ExternalDocumentID US2014604075
GroupedDBID FBQ
ID FETCH-fao_agris_US20146040752
IngestDate Tue Nov 07 23:23:31 EST 2023
IsPeerReviewed false
IsScholarly false
Language English
LinkModel OpenURL
MergedId FETCHMERGED-fao_agris_US20146040752
Notes http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19392
ParticipantIDs fao_agris_US2014604075
PublicationCentury 2000
PublicationDate 2014-08
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD 2014-08-01
PublicationDate_xml – month: 08
  year: 2014
  text: 2014-08
PublicationDecade 2010
PublicationYear 2014
Publisher World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Publisher_xml – name: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Score 2.9475102
Snippet As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call...
SourceID fao
SourceType Publisher
SubjectTerms ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY
AGRICULTURAL YIELDS
AVERAGE GROWTH
BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY
CAPACITY-BUILDING
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
CASH TRANSFERS
CHANGES IN POVERTY
CHRONIC POVERTY
CIVIL SOCIETY
CLEAN WATER
CLIMATE CHANGE
CONFLICT
CONSUMPTION GROWTH
CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
CORRUPTION
COUNTRY INEQUALITY
CURRENT POVERTY
DEMOCRACY
DENSITY FUNCTION
DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY
DEVELOPED WORLD
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
DEVELOPING WORLD
DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DEVELOPMENT REPORT
DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
DIRECT INVESTMENT
DIVERSIFICATION
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
ECONOMICS
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
EXTREME POVERTY
FINANCIAL FLOWS
FOREIGN AID
GINI COEFFICIENT
GINI INDEX
GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP
GLOBAL POVERTY
GOOD GOVERNANCE
GOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HEALTH CARE
HEALTH OUTCOMES
HIGH GROWTH
HIGH INEQUALITY
HIPC
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
HUMAN CAPITAL
HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT
IMPROVING GROWTH
INCOME
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
INCOME GENERATION
INCOME INEQUALITY
INCOME LEVEL
INCOME LEVELS
INCREASING INEQUALITY
INEQUALITY
INEQUALITY CHANGES
INEQUALITY CONSTANT
INEQUALITY DATA
INEQUALITY REDUCTION
INEQUALITY WILL
INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE
INSTITUTIONAL REFORM
INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
INTERVENTION
LABOR MARKET
LIFE EXPECTANCY
LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
MEAN VALUE
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
NATIONAL INCOME
NATURAL RESOURCES
POLICY CHANGES
POLICY LEVEL
POLICY MAKERS
POLICY RESEARCH
POLITICAL REFORMS
POOR
POOR COUNTRIES
POOR HEALTH
POOR INFRASTRUCTURE
POOR LIVING
POOR PEOPLE
POOR POPULATION
POOR POPULATIONS
POPULOUS COUNTRIES
POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES
POVERTY ANALYSIS
POVERTY ERADICATION
POVERTY ESTIMATES
POVERTY GOALS
POVERTY LEVELS
POVERTY LINE
POVERTY MEASURES
POVERTY RATE
POVERTY RATES
POVERTY REDUCTION
POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES
POVERTY TARGET
PRIMARY SCHOOL
PRODUCTION FUNCTION
PUBLIC FINANCES
PUBLIC SECTOR
PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT
PURCHASING POWER
PURCHASING POWER PARITY
QUALITY OF LIFE
REDUCED INEQUALITY
REDUCED POVERTY
REDUCING INEQUALITY
REDUCTION IN POVERTY
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS
SANITATION
SOCIAL CAPITAL
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
STANDARD DEVIATION
STATE CAPACITY
STRUCTURAL POLICIES
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
TRADE OPENNESS
TRANSPARENCY
Title Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030
hasFullText
inHoldings 1
isFullTextHit
isPrint
link http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV3NS8MwFA9OD-rJr-HXJAw9VraatJ03OzaGB5m4wS4ykjadxdHC7A761_temn4cJqiXUFIayu-Xvry8_t4LIdceCziP0HMLZWAx0RFWjzFmeVHQc6VwsMQcqi2enNGUPc74rKrSobNLMnkbfG3MK_kPq9AHvGKW7B-YLQeFDrgGfqEFhqH9FceDlQh1zA22-2PUYmY6iw-c0UWsNYLoSOKef7xKdUqlqT1iBJToc97YNko9rJHAwoTw3dvw-DrO0C21O9XPDH-d5_Y8LFF-VE2GxVtuZ3yxqgmK4yUSpmPuwnSbyEKXlbo2Y7-0mscXyXseB9Oiv-KEp9wk9qtVpNT2TV9wLAeMg8sbpOF6eKDG0H-GxTsS9cV7ckD2a7HJQ7KlkiOyWyRkfxyT1xqM1MBI44QaGGkO4z0tQaRpRAsQKYBI23UI21QDSOUnRQBPSGs4mPRHFrzWXCzAps7r7243yXaSJuqUUMVDKZTT9ZQtGFfKU5Ir3nO6MJnvIumekebmMc5_unFB9irEL8lOBDNStcC9yeSVRusbVigDeg
link.rule.ids 780
linkProvider FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
openUrl ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Eradicating+Poverty+in+Fragile+States%3A+Prospects+of+Reaching+the+%22High-Hanging%22+Fruit+by+2030&rft.au=Burt%2C+Alison&rft.au=Hughes%2C+Barry&rft.au=Milante%2C+Gary&rft.date=2014-08-01&rft.pub=World+Bank+Group%2C+Washington%2C+DC&rft.externalDocID=US2014604075