Influences of future climate warming on overwintering boundary of the brown planthopper

全球气候变暖将对农业病虫害的越冬界限产生影响，从而影响病虫害的发生动态。本文以GIS（地理信息系统）技术研究了未来高经济发展条件下能源种类平衡发展排放情景（A1B）下褐飞虱越冬界限及相应越冬区相对于baseline时段ï...

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Published inZhiwu baohu Vol. 39; no. 6
Main Authors Hu Chaoxing, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding (China), College of Plant Protection, Wei Guoshu, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding (China), College of Plant Protection, Hou Maolin, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China), Institute of Plant Protection
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 01.12.2013
Subjects
DISEASES
ENFERMEDAD
http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_49879
http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_5741
http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_5993
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ORGANISME NUISIBLE
PESTS
PLAGAS
PLANTE
PLANTS
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Abstract 全球气候变暖将对农业病虫害的越冬界限产生影响，从而影响病虫害的发生动态。本文以GIS（地理信息系统）技术研究了未来高经济发展条件下能源种类平衡发展排放情景（A1B）下褐飞虱越冬界限及相应越冬区相对于baseline时段（1961-1990）的可能变化。结果表明：（1）越冬北界在2020s（2010-2039）北移约50km，安全越冬北界北移约110km；2050s（2040-2069）越冬北界北移约120km，安全越冬北界北移约250km。由于经纬度及海拔的影响，越冬界限北移存在一定区域差异。（2）越冬区明显扩大，相对于baseline时段，2020s褐飞虱间歇越冬区扩大约11.93万km2（约23.24%），安全越冬区增加约2.08万km2或0.66倍；2050s间歇越冬区扩大约25.99万km2（约50.63%），安全越冬区增加约18.82万km2或5.93倍。这些结果表明褐飞虱越冬界限对气候变暖响应明显，其中安全越冬北界较越冬北界北移幅度更大。气候变暖å
AbstractList 全球气候变暖将对农业病虫害的越冬界限产生影响，从而影响病虫害的发生动态。本文以GIS（地理信息系统）技术研究了未来高经济发展条件下能源种类平衡发展排放情景（A1B）下褐飞虱越冬界限及相应越冬区相对于baseline时段（1961-1990）的可能变化。结果表明：（1）越冬北界在2020s（2010-2039）北移约50km，安全越冬北界北移约110km；2050s（2040-2069）越冬北界北移约120km，安全越冬北界北移约250km。由于经纬度及海拔的影响，越冬界限北移存在一定区域差异。（2）越冬区明显扩大，相对于baseline时段，2020s褐飞虱间歇越冬区扩大约11.93万km2（约23.24%），安全越冬区增加约2.08万km2或0.66倍；2050s间歇越冬区扩大约25.99万km2（约50.63%），安全越冬区增加约18.82万km2或5.93倍。这些结果表明褐飞虱越冬界限对气候变暖响应明显，其中安全越冬北界较越冬北界北移幅度更大。气候变暖å
Author Hu Chaoxing, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding (China), College of Plant Protection
Wei Guoshu, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding (China), College of Plant Protection
Hou Maolin, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China), Institute of Plant Protection
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http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_5741
http://www.fao.org/aos/agrovoc#c_5993
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Title Influences of future climate warming on overwintering boundary of the brown planthopper
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