Leads and polynyas forecasting

• Main Authors: Crout, Julia, Jacobs, Gregg Arthur, Allard, Richard Arthur, Posey, Pamela
• Format: Patent
• Language: English
• Published: 29.03.2022
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; IMAGE DATA PROCESSING OR GENERATION, IN GENERAL; MEASURING; METEOROLOGY; PHYSICS; TESTING

Embodiments relate to leads and polynyas forecasting. Initially observed ice forecast data is obtained for a geographic area of interest, which is then used to generate an ice grid based on the observed ice data, where the ice grid includes grid cells that map polar regions. At this stage, daily opening rates are determined based on the ice grid, where each daily opening rate indicates an opening speed of a corresponding ice event, and daily convergence strain rates are determined based on the ice grid, where each daily convergence strain rate indicates a convergence of the corresponding ice event. For each day, a daily opening rate is weighted and then adjusting by a daily convergence strain rate. A forecasted opening rate on a target date is determined based on the weighted, adjusted daily opening rates. Predicted openings of the polar region can be rendered based on the forecasted opening rate.