Multi-state equipment system multi-stage spare part demand prediction method facing repairable spare part

• Main Authors: JIANG ZHONGYU, LI YANG, SI WEITAO, ZHANG SHUAI, CAI ZHIQIANG, SI SHUBIN
• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: 26.10.2016
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

The present invention discloses a multi-state equipment system multi-stage spare part demand prediction method facing a repairable spare part, used for solving the technical problem that the conventional spare part demand prediction method is poor in practicality. The technical scheme is that firstly the task demands of the stages and the states of the parts are determined respectively according to the equipment system part composition; secondly, the different parts and the corresponding spare parts in an equipment system are used as the repairable part sets respectively to consider overall, and an MMDD model of a task system is established; then a Markov chain is utilized to establish a failure model of each part set of a multi-state task system carrying the repairable spare parts in the multi-stage tasks, the paths from a root node to a final node 1 in the MMDD model are enumerated to form an non-intersect path set; finally, based on the established MMDD model and the Markov chain of the part sets, the reli