How Does Trade Openness Affect Regional Demographic Transitions？ Evidence from China＇s Provincial Panel Data

This paper investigates the effect of trade openness and other variables on thedemographic transition in China using the instrumental variables regression methodbased on provincial panel data for the period between 1981 and 2013. The resultsindicate that trade openness is one of the determinants of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in中国与世界经济：英文版 Vol. 25; no. 3; pp. 112 - 130
Main Authors Shujin Zhu, Renyu Li, Tenglong Zhong
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 01.06.2017
Subjects
income
capital
trade
openness
per
human
transition
demographic
capita
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ISSN1671-2234

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Summary:This paper investigates the effect of trade openness and other variables on thedemographic transition in China using the instrumental variables regression methodbased on provincial panel data for the period between 1981 and 2013. The resultsindicate that trade openness is one of the determinants of China＇s demographictransition and has two distinct effects： （i） an income effect that accelerated thedemographic transition by increasing per capita income; and （ii） a human capital effectthat suppressed the demographic transition by reducing human capital accumulation.The effects of trade on demographic transition vary across different regions. This studyidentifies the important determinants of demographic transition in China＇s regions, andhas rich policy implications for demographic transition and the upgrading of tradestructure.
ISSN:1671-2234