Has the Recession Started?

• Main Authors: Michaillat, Pascal, Saez, Emmanuel
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 11.08.2024
• Subjects: Quantitative Finance - Economics

To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -- the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the unemployment rate and its minimum over the past 12 months -- and a sim...