基于多元自适应回归样条的光伏并网系统日输出功率预测

为了更加准确、灵活地预测光伏发电系统的输出功率,提出了基于多元自适应回归样条(MARS)的光伏系统输出功率预测方法.通过对该算法的原理进行分析,确定了模型分析流程,并介绍了数据来源.其次,以气温、日照时间等因素作为自变量,对MARS模型进行了分析研究,确定了光伏功率预测时的仿真模型.最后,将提出的预测方法与现有的预测方法进行了对比.通过训练数据以及测试数据对比分析各种方法的RMSE、MAD和MAPE,并根据历史数据预测光伏日输出功率.通过对比证实了MARS模型比其他模型更能准确预测光伏系统的输出功率....

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Published in电力系统保护与控制 Vol. 49; no. 5; pp. 124 - 131
Main Authors 鲍长庚, 闫贻鹏, 黄一楠, 袁靖, 陆培钧, 周志峰
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 国网上海青浦供电公司,上海201700%上海置信电气非晶有限公司,上海201700%上海工程技术大学,上海201620 01.03.2021
Subjects
输出功率
多元自适应回归样条
预测模型
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1674-3415
DOI10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.200503

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Abstract 为了更加准确、灵活地预测光伏发电系统的输出功率,提出了基于多元自适应回归样条(MARS)的光伏系统输出功率预测方法.通过对该算法的原理进行分析,确定了模型分析流程,并介绍了数据来源.其次,以气温、日照时间等因素作为自变量,对MARS模型进行了分析研究,确定了光伏功率预测时的仿真模型.最后,将提出的预测方法与现有的预测方法进行了对比.通过训练数据以及测试数据对比分析各种方法的RMSE、MAD和MAPE,并根据历史数据预测光伏日输出功率.通过对比证实了MARS模型比其他模型更能准确预测光伏系统的输出功率.
AbstractList 为了更加准确、灵活地预测光伏发电系统的输出功率,提出了基于多元自适应回归样条(MARS)的光伏系统输出功率预测方法.通过对该算法的原理进行分析,确定了模型分析流程,并介绍了数据来源.其次,以气温、日照时间等因素作为自变量,对MARS模型进行了分析研究,确定了光伏功率预测时的仿真模型.最后,将提出的预测方法与现有的预测方法进行了对比.通过训练数据以及测试数据对比分析各种方法的RMSE、MAD和MAPE,并根据历史数据预测光伏日输出功率.通过对比证实了MARS模型比其他模型更能准确预测光伏系统的输出功率.
Author 黄一楠
周志峰
闫贻鹏
陆培钧
袁靖
鲍长庚
AuthorAffiliation 国网上海青浦供电公司,上海201700%上海置信电气非晶有限公司,上海201700%上海工程技术大学,上海201620
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ZHOU Zhifeng
YUAN Jing
HUANG Yinan
LU Peijun
YAN Yipeng
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Title 基于多元自适应回归样条的光伏并网系统日输出功率预测
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