基于有向网络的航空安全事故风险识别与评估

N945%U8%X949; 针对航空安全事故风险识别与评估问题,基于2019年航空安全事故,通过事件树分析方法分析风险事件间的因果关系,建立了有向加权航空安全风险网络模型.面对航空安全风险传播的情况,引入传染病模型对航空安全风险网络风险传播进行建模,对风险事件进行排序以实现航空安全风险识别,提出了航空安全风险网络风险指标与航空安全事故发生风险指标,以评估航空系统安全风险.结果发现,能见度差、飞机系统故障、设备维护不足、违规操作、疲劳、资源配置不当、应急响应措施不当、飞行准备不足、教育培训不足等应当引起管理者的关注....

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Published in系统工程与电子技术 Vol. 46; no. 6; pp. 1995 - 2001
Main Authors 张晗, 王强
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 西安财经大学审计处,陕西西安 710100%空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,陕西西安 710051 01.06.2024
空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,陕西西安 710051
Subjects
传染病模型
航空系统
infectious model
aviation system
network modeling
risk evaluation
risk identification
网络建模
aviation accident
航空事故
风险识别
风险评估
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1001-506X
DOI10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.06.17

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Abstract N945%U8%X949; 针对航空安全事故风险识别与评估问题,基于2019年航空安全事故,通过事件树分析方法分析风险事件间的因果关系,建立了有向加权航空安全风险网络模型.面对航空安全风险传播的情况,引入传染病模型对航空安全风险网络风险传播进行建模,对风险事件进行排序以实现航空安全风险识别,提出了航空安全风险网络风险指标与航空安全事故发生风险指标,以评估航空系统安全风险.结果发现,能见度差、飞机系统故障、设备维护不足、违规操作、疲劳、资源配置不当、应急响应措施不当、飞行准备不足、教育培训不足等应当引起管理者的关注.
AbstractList N945%U8%X949; 针对航空安全事故风险识别与评估问题,基于2019年航空安全事故,通过事件树分析方法分析风险事件间的因果关系,建立了有向加权航空安全风险网络模型.面对航空安全风险传播的情况,引入传染病模型对航空安全风险网络风险传播进行建模,对风险事件进行排序以实现航空安全风险识别,提出了航空安全风险网络风险指标与航空安全事故发生风险指标,以评估航空系统安全风险.结果发现,能见度差、飞机系统故障、设备维护不足、违规操作、疲劳、资源配置不当、应急响应措施不当、飞行准备不足、教育培训不足等应当引起管理者的关注.
Abstract_FL Aiming at the identification and evaluation problem of aviation safety accident risk,based on the aviation safety accidents in 2019,the causal relationship between risk events is analyzed with event tree analysis method,and a directed weighted aviation safety risk network model is established.The infectious disease model is introduced to model the network risk propagation with the spread of aviation safety risk,and the risk events are ranked to identify aviation safety risk.The aviation safety risk network risk index and the aviation safety accident occurrence risk index are proposed to evaluate the aviation system safety risk.The results show that managers should be concerned about poor visibility,aircraft system failures,insufficient equipment maintenance,illegal operations,fatigue,improper resource allocation,improper emergency response measures,insufficient flight readiness,and insufficient education and training.
Author 张晗
王强
AuthorAffiliation 空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,陕西西安 710051;西安财经大学审计处,陕西西安 710100%空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,陕西西安 710051
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Author_FL WANG Qiang
ZHANG Han
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Keywords 传染病模型
航空系统
infectious model
aviation system
network modeling
risk evaluation
risk identification
网络建模
aviation accident
航空事故
风险识别
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