直流配电技术成熟度分析及发展趋势预测

TM72; 针对当前直流配电技术发展路径不明晰的问题,提出了直流配电技术发展阶段评估和成熟度预测方法以探究其发展趋势.首先,构建基于技术成熟度曲线的技术成熟度评估模型,通过调研文献将其按内容分为规划设计、运行控制与保护、关键设备3类,并进行文献检索以获取成熟度预测数据基础;接着,对未来直流配电技术的成熟度阶段和整体发展趋势进行分析预测,给出技术、热度双重作用下的直流配电成熟度预测结果;最后,通过设计拟合优度指标和交叉验证方法,验证了所提模型的准确性.研究结果表明:文献、专利等成果的数量可以反映技术发展趋势,直流配电技术科学研究热潮将在2030-2040年达到顶峰,并在2060年前后实现稳定发展...

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Published in	西安交通大学学报 Vol. 58; no. 4; pp. 41 - 53
Main Authors	宁可儿, 焦在滨, 施任威, 张超逸, 刘俊杉
Format	Journal Article
Language	Chinese
Published	西安交通大学电气工程学院,710049,西安 01.04.2024
Subjects	Hype Cycle 成熟度预测 maturity forecast 拟合优度指标技术成熟度曲线直流配电 goodness of fit index direct current power distribution
Online Access	Get full text
ISSN	0253-987X
DOI	10.7652/xjtuxb202404004

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Abstract	TM72; 针对当前直流配电技术发展路径不明晰的问题,提出了直流配电技术发展阶段评估和成熟度预测方法以探究其发展趋势.首先,构建基于技术成熟度曲线的技术成熟度评估模型,通过调研文献将其按内容分为规划设计、运行控制与保护、关键设备3类,并进行文献检索以获取成熟度预测数据基础;接着,对未来直流配电技术的成熟度阶段和整体发展趋势进行分析预测,给出技术、热度双重作用下的直流配电成熟度预测结果;最后,通过设计拟合优度指标和交叉验证方法,验证了所提模型的准确性.研究结果表明:文献、专利等成果的数量可以反映技术发展趋势,直流配电技术科学研究热潮将在2030-2040年达到顶峰,并在2060年前后实现稳定发展,这与我国"双碳"目标实现的时间节点有效对应.
AbstractList	TM72; 针对当前直流配电技术发展路径不明晰的问题,提出了直流配电技术发展阶段评估和成熟度预测方法以探究其发展趋势.首先,构建基于技术成熟度曲线的技术成熟度评估模型,通过调研文献将其按内容分为规划设计、运行控制与保护、关键设备3类,并进行文献检索以获取成熟度预测数据基础;接着,对未来直流配电技术的成熟度阶段和整体发展趋势进行分析预测,给出技术、热度双重作用下的直流配电成熟度预测结果;最后,通过设计拟合优度指标和交叉验证方法,验证了所提模型的准确性.研究结果表明:文献、专利等成果的数量可以反映技术发展趋势,直流配电技术科学研究热潮将在2030-2040年达到顶峰,并在2060年前后实现稳定发展,这与我国"双碳"目标实现的时间节点有效对应.
Abstract_FL	Regarding the unclear development path of direct current(DC)power distribution technology,the development stage assessment and maturity prediction methods of DC power distribution technology are proposed.Initially,a technology maturity assessment model based on the Hype Cycle is established.The literature related to DC power distribution can be classified into three categories,including planning and design,operation control and protection,and key equipment according to the content.Literature retrieval is conducted to obtain the basis of maturity prediction data.Subsequently,the future maturity and overall development trends of DC power distribution technology are analyzed and predicted to offer the forecast results of DC power distribution maturity under the dual role of technology and heat.Ultimately,the accuracy of the proposed model is verified by the designed goodness of fit index and cross-validation methods.The results show that the number of achievements such as literature and patents can reflect the development trend of the technology.The boom of scientific research on DC power distribution technology is expected to peak in 2030 to 2040 and realize stable development around 2060,which corresponds to the time for achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.
Author	宁可儿刘俊杉施任威焦在滨张超逸
AuthorAffiliation	西安交通大学电气工程学院,710049,西安
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Title	直流配电技术成熟度分析及发展趋势预测
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