WGDWS天气发生器在中国五大气候区的适用性
TP311%S161; 为了检验基于干湿期的天气发生器(Weather Generator based on Dry and Wet Spells,WGDWS)在中国不同气候区的应用效果,该研究利用中国五大主要气候区16个站点57 a的逐日天气数据,通过对比生成与实测气象要素统计值,及比较WGDWS与随机天气模拟器(Daily Weather Stochastic Simulator,DWSS)生成的气象要素统计值,测试WGDWS的可用性和准确性.显著性检验表明,WGDWS产生的每个气象要素的月值和干湿期长度与实测值相比没有显著差异.月最高、最低气温绝对误差≤0.5℃的站点比例分别达93.8％...
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| Published in | 农业工程学报 Vol. 38; no. 3; pp. 75 - 83 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
农业农村部信息服务技术重点实验室,北京 100081%中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081
01.02.2022
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1002-6819 |
| DOI | 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.03.009 |
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| Abstract | TP311%S161; 为了检验基于干湿期的天气发生器(Weather Generator based on Dry and Wet Spells,WGDWS)在中国不同气候区的应用效果,该研究利用中国五大主要气候区16个站点57 a的逐日天气数据,通过对比生成与实测气象要素统计值,及比较WGDWS与随机天气模拟器(Daily Weather Stochastic Simulator,DWSS)生成的气象要素统计值,测试WGDWS的可用性和准确性.显著性检验表明,WGDWS产生的每个气象要素的月值和干湿期长度与实测值相比没有显著差异.月最高、最低气温绝对误差≤0.5℃的站点比例分别达93.8％和96.4％,月降水日数绝对误差≤1 d的站点比例达95.8％,月降水量绝对误差有91.7％的站点在10 mm之内,月太阳总辐射绝对误差2 MJ/m2以内的站点比例达90.1％;月最长干期、最长湿期、平均干期、平均湿期的平均绝对误差分别为4.16、0.76、1.00、0.15 d.WGDWS在温带季风和亚热带季风气候下的干湿期模拟效果优于温带大陆气候和热带季风气候.比较WGDWS和DWSS生成的逐日模拟序列的误差分布,月最高气温、月最低气温和月总太阳辐射的误差分布高度一致.WGDWS对月降水日数的模拟效果优于DWSS,即等概率条件下,WGDWS相对误差更小,而DWSS对月降水量的模拟效果优于WGDWS.因此,WGDWS能够准确反映长期干旱或长期阴雨天气的实际情况,可用于生成长序列逐日天气数据,以满足气候模型、水分模型和作物生理模型的需求. |
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| AbstractList | TP311%S161; 为了检验基于干湿期的天气发生器(Weather Generator based on Dry and Wet Spells,WGDWS)在中国不同气候区的应用效果,该研究利用中国五大主要气候区16个站点57 a的逐日天气数据,通过对比生成与实测气象要素统计值,及比较WGDWS与随机天气模拟器(Daily Weather Stochastic Simulator,DWSS)生成的气象要素统计值,测试WGDWS的可用性和准确性.显著性检验表明,WGDWS产生的每个气象要素的月值和干湿期长度与实测值相比没有显著差异.月最高、最低气温绝对误差≤0.5℃的站点比例分别达93.8％和96.4％,月降水日数绝对误差≤1 d的站点比例达95.8％,月降水量绝对误差有91.7％的站点在10 mm之内,月太阳总辐射绝对误差2 MJ/m2以内的站点比例达90.1％;月最长干期、最长湿期、平均干期、平均湿期的平均绝对误差分别为4.16、0.76、1.00、0.15 d.WGDWS在温带季风和亚热带季风气候下的干湿期模拟效果优于温带大陆气候和热带季风气候.比较WGDWS和DWSS生成的逐日模拟序列的误差分布,月最高气温、月最低气温和月总太阳辐射的误差分布高度一致.WGDWS对月降水日数的模拟效果优于DWSS,即等概率条件下,WGDWS相对误差更小,而DWSS对月降水量的模拟效果优于WGDWS.因此,WGDWS能够准确反映长期干旱或长期阴雨天气的实际情况,可用于生成长序列逐日天气数据,以满足气候模型、水分模型和作物生理模型的需求. |
| Author | 诸叶平 李世娟 刘升平 张杰 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 农业农村部信息服务技术重点实验室,北京 100081%中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081 |
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| Author_FL | Liu Shengping Li Shijuan Zhu Yeping Zhang Jie |
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| DOI | 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.03.009 |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Applicability of weather generator based on dry and wet spells (WGDWS) in five climate regions of China |
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| Keywords | 气象学;随机变量;降水;天气发生器;干湿期;WGDWS;DWSS |
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| Publisher | 农业农村部信息服务技术重点实验室,北京 100081%中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081 |
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| Title | WGDWS天气发生器在中国五大气候区的适用性 |
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