中国石油资源产业链供应链安全评价
TD-9%F407.22; 石油作为战略性矿产资源,在中国经济发展与社会稳定中发挥着关键作用,但中国石油对外依存度在 2023年约为 74%,远超 50%的安全线.在这一背景下,如何构建中国石油资源产业链供应链安全评价指标体系成为当下亟待解决的问题.为此从资源获取、资源流通与资源转化 3个层面出发,构建评价指标体系.在对 2000-2021年指标进行评级划分后,分别对指标进行均权与变权综合分析,得出研究期内安全水平变动情况,进一步结合障碍度与贡献度模型分析影响产业链供应链安全的因素.研究结果表明:①中国石油资源产业链供应链安全呈现出周期性变动,研究期内包含四个先上升后下降的小周期,同时整个研究...
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| Published in | 中国矿业 Vol. 34; no. 2; pp. 99 - 110 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Magazine Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州 341000
01.02.2025
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1004-4051 |
| DOI | 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20242035 |
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| Abstract | TD-9%F407.22; 石油作为战略性矿产资源,在中国经济发展与社会稳定中发挥着关键作用,但中国石油对外依存度在 2023年约为 74%,远超 50%的安全线.在这一背景下,如何构建中国石油资源产业链供应链安全评价指标体系成为当下亟待解决的问题.为此从资源获取、资源流通与资源转化 3个层面出发,构建评价指标体系.在对 2000-2021年指标进行评级划分后,分别对指标进行均权与变权综合分析,得出研究期内安全水平变动情况,进一步结合障碍度与贡献度模型分析影响产业链供应链安全的因素.研究结果表明:①中国石油资源产业链供应链安全呈现出周期性变动,研究期内包含四个先上升后下降的小周期,同时整个研究期同样呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,说明中国石油资源产业链供应链安全虽然有波动但是围绕中心相对稳定,且波动呈现出周期性波动;②资源转化安全是阻碍中国石油资源产业链供应链安全的主要因素,这与中国在石油资源产业链供应链位置较低有关,且会影响资源的获取安全与流通安全;③石油资源产业链供应链安全的主要贡献因素相对复杂,第一周期内流通安全与转化安全为主要贡献因素,第二周期为转化安全,第三周期为流通安全,第四周期内三种因素的贡献度相对持平.针对上述结论,分别从资源获取、资源流通与资源转化三方面出发,为石油资源产业链供应链安全提供政策建议.本文研究为维护中国石油资源安全提出方向与思路,为增强产业链供应链安全提供参考支撑. |
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| AbstractList | TD-9%F407.22; 石油作为战略性矿产资源,在中国经济发展与社会稳定中发挥着关键作用,但中国石油对外依存度在 2023年约为 74%,远超 50%的安全线.在这一背景下,如何构建中国石油资源产业链供应链安全评价指标体系成为当下亟待解决的问题.为此从资源获取、资源流通与资源转化 3个层面出发,构建评价指标体系.在对 2000-2021年指标进行评级划分后,分别对指标进行均权与变权综合分析,得出研究期内安全水平变动情况,进一步结合障碍度与贡献度模型分析影响产业链供应链安全的因素.研究结果表明:①中国石油资源产业链供应链安全呈现出周期性变动,研究期内包含四个先上升后下降的小周期,同时整个研究期同样呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,说明中国石油资源产业链供应链安全虽然有波动但是围绕中心相对稳定,且波动呈现出周期性波动;②资源转化安全是阻碍中国石油资源产业链供应链安全的主要因素,这与中国在石油资源产业链供应链位置较低有关,且会影响资源的获取安全与流通安全;③石油资源产业链供应链安全的主要贡献因素相对复杂,第一周期内流通安全与转化安全为主要贡献因素,第二周期为转化安全,第三周期为流通安全,第四周期内三种因素的贡献度相对持平.针对上述结论,分别从资源获取、资源流通与资源转化三方面出发,为石油资源产业链供应链安全提供政策建议.本文研究为维护中国石油资源安全提出方向与思路,为增强产业链供应链安全提供参考支撑. |
| Abstract_FL | Petroleum,as a strategic mineral resource,plays a key role in China's economic development and social stability.However,China's external dependence on petroleum is expected to be around 74%in 2023,far exceeding the safety line of 50%.In this context,how to construct an evaluation index system for the security of China's petroleum resource industry and supply chains has become an urgent problem to be solved.To this end,an evaluation index system is constructed from three levels:resource acquisition,resource circulation,and resource transformation.After rating and dividing the indicators from 2000 to 2021,a comprehensive analysis is conducted on both average and variable weights of the indicators to determine the changes in safety levels during the research period.Further analysis is conducted by combining obstacle and contribution models to identify factors that affect the safety of the industry and supply chains.The main research conclusions obtained are as follows:①the supply chain security of China's petroleum resource industry chain shows cyclical changes,and it is found that there are four small cycles that first increased and then decreased during the research period.At the same time,the entire research period also shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,indicating that although the supply chain security of China's petroleum resource industry chain fluctuates,it is relatively stable around the center,and the fluctuations show cyclical fluctuations.②The security of resource conversion is the main factor hindering the security of China's petroleum resource industry chain and supply chain,which is related to China's lower position in the petroleum resource industry chain and can affect the security of resource acquisition and circulation.③The main contributing factors to the security of the petroleum resource industry chain and supply chain are relatively complex.In the first cycle,circulation safety and conversion safety are the main contributing factors,conversion safety is the second cycle,circulation safety is the third cycle,and the contribution of the three factors is relatively equal in the fourth cycle.Based on the above conclusions,policy recommendations are provided for the security of the petroleum resource industry chain and supply chain from three aspects:resource acquisition,resource circulation,and resource transformation.This paper proposes directions and ideas for maintaining the security of China's petroleum resources,and contributes to enhancing the security of the industry and supply chains. |
| Author | 罗来文 倪京生 郑明贵 董娟 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州 341000 |
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| Author_FL | ZHENG Minggui NI Jingsheng DONG Juan LUO Laiwen |
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| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 郑明贵 – sequence: 2 fullname: 倪京生 – sequence: 3 fullname: 罗来文 – sequence: 4 fullname: 董娟 |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Security evaluation of industry and supply chains of petroleum resources in China |
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| Keywords | strategic mineral resource supply chain security evaluation 障碍度模型 石油 安全评价 贡献度模型 蒙特卡洛模拟 contribution model 供应链 战略性矿产资源 obstacle model 产业链 industry chain petroleum Monte Carlo simulation |
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