缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法及应用

P333.2; 很多城市缺乏洪灾灾情资料,导致缺少洪灾损失量化的有效手段.为满足城市洪涝日益严峻的风险管理需求,亟需缺灾情资料城市的洪灾损失定量评估方法.提出了"因子变异-动态比拟-目标驱动-情景拟合"的缺灾情资料洪灾损失率函数构建方法:借鉴等比例替代思想,采用多引用对象和多特征指标构建变异比拟因子;建立以变差系数最小为目标的动态比拟方法,形成移植样本矩阵;以Beta分布概率最大为驱动目标,确定水深-损失率拟合序列;设置多拟合情景,以拟合相关系数最大为准则,优选洪灾损失率函数.以郑州市为例,模拟4种土地利用类型的洪灾损失率函数,结果表明,本文提出的缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构...

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Published in水科学进展 Vol. 32; no. 5; pp. 707 - 716
Main Authors 吕鸿, 吴泽宁, 管新建, 王慧亮, 孟钰, 江鹏昆
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 郑州大学水利科学与工程学院, 河南 郑州 450001 30.09.2021
Subjects
城市洪灾;损失率;缺灾情资料;变异比拟因子;动态比拟;多情景拟合
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1001-6791
DOI10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2021.05.006

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Abstract P333.2; 很多城市缺乏洪灾灾情资料,导致缺少洪灾损失量化的有效手段.为满足城市洪涝日益严峻的风险管理需求,亟需缺灾情资料城市的洪灾损失定量评估方法.提出了"因子变异-动态比拟-目标驱动-情景拟合"的缺灾情资料洪灾损失率函数构建方法:借鉴等比例替代思想,采用多引用对象和多特征指标构建变异比拟因子;建立以变差系数最小为目标的动态比拟方法,形成移植样本矩阵;以Beta分布概率最大为驱动目标,确定水深-损失率拟合序列;设置多拟合情景,以拟合相关系数最大为准则,优选洪灾损失率函数.以郑州市为例,模拟4种土地利用类型的洪灾损失率函数,结果表明,本文提出的缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法可行,特征组合指标呈现动态变化性,多种函数组合拟合效果最优.
AbstractList P333.2; 很多城市缺乏洪灾灾情资料,导致缺少洪灾损失量化的有效手段.为满足城市洪涝日益严峻的风险管理需求,亟需缺灾情资料城市的洪灾损失定量评估方法.提出了"因子变异-动态比拟-目标驱动-情景拟合"的缺灾情资料洪灾损失率函数构建方法:借鉴等比例替代思想,采用多引用对象和多特征指标构建变异比拟因子;建立以变差系数最小为目标的动态比拟方法,形成移植样本矩阵;以Beta分布概率最大为驱动目标,确定水深-损失率拟合序列;设置多拟合情景,以拟合相关系数最大为准则,优选洪灾损失率函数.以郑州市为例,模拟4种土地利用类型的洪灾损失率函数,结果表明,本文提出的缺资料城市洪灾损失率函数构建方法可行,特征组合指标呈现动态变化性,多种函数组合拟合效果最优.
Author 吕鸿
吴泽宁
孟钰
江鹏昆
管新建
王慧亮
AuthorAffiliation 郑州大学水利科学与工程学院, 河南 郑州 450001
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WANG Huiliang
WU Zening
JIANG Pengkun
LYU Hong
GUAN Xinjian
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