Study on the effects of the restrictive measures for containment of the COVID-19 pandemic on the reproduction number Rt in Italian regions

Since November 6th, 2020, Italian regions have been classified according to four levels, corresponding to specific risk scenarios, for which specific restrictive measures have been foreseen. By analyzing the time evolution of the reproduction number R t , we estimate how much different restrictive m...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEuropean physical journal plus Vol. 136; no. 12; p. 1208
Main Authors Bonifazi, Gianluca, Lista, Luca, Menasce, Dario, Mezzetto, Mauro, Pedrini, Daniele, Spighi, Roberto, Zoccoli, Antonio
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.12.2021
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Algorithms
Applied and Technical Physics
Atomic
Complex Systems
Condensed Matter Physics
COVID-19
Mathematical and Computational Physics
Molecular
Optical and Plasma Physics
Pandemics
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Regular Article
Theoretical
Time lag
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Summary:Since November 6th, 2020, Italian regions have been classified according to four levels, corresponding to specific risk scenarios, for which specific restrictive measures have been foreseen. By analyzing the time evolution of the reproduction number R t , we estimate how much different restrictive measures affect R t , and we quantify the combined effect of the diffusion of virus variants and the beginning of the vaccination campaign upon the R t trend. We also compute the time delay between implementation of restrictive measures and the resulting effects. Three different models to describe the effects of restrictive measures are discussed and the results are cross-checked with two different algorithms for the computation of R t .
ISSN:2190-5444
DOI:10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02076-6