基于交叉验证法与马尔科夫链的年径流丰枯分类可靠性研究
P333; [目的]提出一种用于检验年径流丰枯分类可靠性的方法,为划分流域年径流丰枯类别提供科学依据.[方法]从稳定性和可预测性2个方面分析年径流丰枯分类的可靠性,提出基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链的检验方法;以常用的均值标准差法、灰色关联分析法和集对分析法为代表,采用交叉验证法和马尔科夫链分别研究各方法所得分类结果的稳定性和可预测性;建立分类差异指数和转移概率差值,用于评价不同分类方法划分年径流丰枯类别的稳定性和可预测性;最后以黄河上游唐乃亥站1956—2021年的年径流序列为例进行验证.[结果]①基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链,不同分类方法得到的年径流丰枯状态均存在差异,表明不同分类方法划分和预测...
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| Published in | Guanʻgai paishui xuebao Vol. 42; no. 5; pp. 90 - 121 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese English |
| Published |
Xinxiang City
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Farmland Irrigation Research Institute Editorial Office of Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
01.05.2023
扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225009%扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225009 扬州大学 现代农村水利研究院,江苏 扬州 225009 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1672-3317 |
| DOI | 10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022364 |
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| Abstract | P333; [目的]提出一种用于检验年径流丰枯分类可靠性的方法,为划分流域年径流丰枯类别提供科学依据.[方法]从稳定性和可预测性2个方面分析年径流丰枯分类的可靠性,提出基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链的检验方法;以常用的均值标准差法、灰色关联分析法和集对分析法为代表,采用交叉验证法和马尔科夫链分别研究各方法所得分类结果的稳定性和可预测性;建立分类差异指数和转移概率差值,用于评价不同分类方法划分年径流丰枯类别的稳定性和可预测性;最后以黄河上游唐乃亥站1956—2021年的年径流序列为例进行验证.[结果]①基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链,不同分类方法得到的年径流丰枯状态均存在差异,表明不同分类方法划分和预测年径流丰枯状态的稳定性和可预测性不同.②对唐乃亥站而言,分类差异指数表明GRA法的稳定性最好,SPA法其次,MSD法最差;转移概率差值表明GRA法的可预测性最好,SPA法其次,MSD法最差.③综合考虑各分类方法的稳定性和可预测性,对唐乃亥站而言,GRA法划分年径流丰枯状态最为可靠,SPA法其次,MSD法最差.[结论]不同年径流丰枯分类方法在同一流域存在可靠性差异,基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链的方法能够有效检验各分类方法所得结果的可靠性. |
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| AbstractList | P333; [目的]提出一种用于检验年径流丰枯分类可靠性的方法,为划分流域年径流丰枯类别提供科学依据.[方法]从稳定性和可预测性2个方面分析年径流丰枯分类的可靠性,提出基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链的检验方法;以常用的均值标准差法、灰色关联分析法和集对分析法为代表,采用交叉验证法和马尔科夫链分别研究各方法所得分类结果的稳定性和可预测性;建立分类差异指数和转移概率差值,用于评价不同分类方法划分年径流丰枯类别的稳定性和可预测性;最后以黄河上游唐乃亥站1956—2021年的年径流序列为例进行验证.[结果]①基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链,不同分类方法得到的年径流丰枯状态均存在差异,表明不同分类方法划分和预测年径流丰枯状态的稳定性和可预测性不同.②对唐乃亥站而言,分类差异指数表明GRA法的稳定性最好,SPA法其次,MSD法最差;转移概率差值表明GRA法的可预测性最好,SPA法其次,MSD法最差.③综合考虑各分类方法的稳定性和可预测性,对唐乃亥站而言,GRA法划分年径流丰枯状态最为可靠,SPA法其次,MSD法最差.[结论]不同年径流丰枯分类方法在同一流域存在可靠性差异,基于交叉验证法和马尔科夫链的方法能够有效检验各分类方法所得结果的可靠性. |
| Author | ZHANG, Qin XIE Yangyang XI Haichao LIU Saiyan |
| AuthorAffiliation | 扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225009%扬州大学 水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225009;扬州大学 现代农村水利研究院,江苏 扬州 225009 |
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| Author_FL | ZHANG Qin XIE Yangyang XI Haichao LIU Saiyan |
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| Copyright | 2023. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
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| Keywords | 集对分析 灰色关联分析 马尔科夫链 丰枯分类可靠性 交叉验证 |
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| SubjectTerms | Annual runoff Catchments Classification Evaluation Markov analysis Markov chains Methods Reliability River basins Runoff Stability analysis Watersheds |
| Title | 基于交叉验证法与马尔科夫链的年径流丰枯分类可靠性研究 |
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