Influencing factors and decoupling analysis of farmland carbon emissions in Hebei Province

• Published in: Journal of agricultural resources and environment Vol. 42; no. 4; p. 935
• Main Authors: Wang, Jiawei, Li Shuangjiang, Chen, Yixuan, Li Hanmo, Zhang, Meijuan, Liu, Yufeng, Zhou Yingjia
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese
• Published: Tianjin Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment (JARE) 01.01.2025
• Subjects: Agricultural development; Agricultural ecosystems; Agricultural land; Agricultural production; Agriculture; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Decoupling; Economic development; Economics; Emission measurements; Emissions; Regional development; Rural populations; Urbanization; China; Hebei China
• ISSN: 2095-6819; 2095-6819
• DOI: 10.13254/j.jare.2024.0414

为分析河北省农田碳排放时空特征、影响因素及脱钩效应，本研究采用排放系数法测算 2010—2021年河北省农田碳排放，基于LMDI模型分析其影响因素，基于Tapio脱钩模型分析其与农业产值间的关系。结果表明：河北省农田碳排放以2014年为转折点，呈先波动上升后下降的趋势，2010年排放量（以CO2计，下同）为2 818.16万 t，2014年达到峰值2 855.36万 t，2021年下降为1 995.82万 t；单位产值碳排放整体呈波动下降趋势，从2010年的1.39 t·万元-1到2021年的0.56 t·万元-1，年均降低7.93%；农田碳排放呈南部高、北部低的格局，单位产值碳排放呈东南高、西北低的格局。农业生产效率、农业产业结构及城镇化水平对河北省农田生态系统碳排放有抑制作用，农业生产效率是主要抑制因素，年均减排贡献量为 205.52万 t；地区经济发展水平及农村总人口对碳排放有促进作用，地区经济发展水平是关键促进因素，年均排放贡献量为141.40万t。河北省农田碳排放与农业产值的脱钩状态主要以弱脱钩、弱负脱钩和强脱钩为主，以2017年为转折点，脱钩状态先变差后改善。研究表明，河北省应根据各地区具体情况制定差别化的农田碳排放管控措施，推动农业低碳发展和良性增长。To analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics, influencing factors and decoupling effect of farmland carbon emission, the emission coefficient method was employed to estimate the farmland carbon emissions in Hebei Province during 2010—2021. The LMDI model was used to analyze influence factors of farmland carbon emissions. Furthermore, the relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural output value was examined based on the Tapio decoupling model. Results showed tha