벼 작기중 발생한 El Niño와 국내 벼 작황과의 관계
After the strongest El Niño since 2015 occurred in 2023, there has been a growing interest in understanding its impacts on rice yield in South Korea. We investigated the impact of El Niño during the rice-growing season on rice yield by analyzing the correlation between detrended rice yield data and...
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| Published in | Korean journal of crop science Vol. 69; no. 2; pp. 71 - 77 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Korean |
| Published |
한국작물학회
01.06.2024
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0252-9777 2287-8432 |
| DOI | 10.7740/kjcs.2024.69.2.071 |
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| Abstract | After the strongest El Niño since 2015 occurred in 2023, there has been a growing interest in understanding its impacts on rice yield in South Korea. We investigated the impact of El Niño during the rice-growing season on rice yield by analyzing the correlation between detrended rice yield data and ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) values exceeding 0.5. The results show a positive correlation between ONI intensities and detrended rice yields. Furthermore, we found that variations in sunshine duration, precipitation, and typhoon activity affect detrended yield values positively and negatively. This pattern was similar to the classification of El Niño into Cold Tongue El Niño and non-Cold Tongue El Niño, which showed positive and negative detrended rice yield values, respectively. This observation suggests that predicting yield based on ONI intensity during Cold Tongue El Niño years may be feasible to some extent. |
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| AbstractList | 1. 2015년 이후 가장 강한 El Niño가 2023년 발생하여 El Niño가 농업부분에 미치는 영향에 대해서 관심이 높아지고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 쌀 수량에 미치는 영향을다시 검토할 필요가 있다. 벼의 작기중에 발생한El Niño 가 쌀 수량의 증감에 영향을 주는지 규명하기 위해, 추세가 제거된 쌀 수량 자료와 벼 작기중ONI 값이 0.5이상으로 유지된 연도의 자료를 이용하여 이들의 관계를조사하였다. 그 결과 ONI 강도가 높을수록 추세가 제거된 쌀 수량이 높게 나오는 경향을 확인하였다.
2. 또한 추세 제거 쌀 수량 지수가 양의 값으로 나오는 연도와 음의 값으로 나오는 연도에는 여름 및 가을의 일조시간 및 강수량이 다를 뿐만 아니라 태풍의 영향이 다르다는 것을 확인하였다. 이는 El Niño를 Cold tongue El Niño인 경우와 그렇지 않은 경우로 분류할 때와 유사하였다. Cold tongue El Niño인 경우에는 추세 제거 수량이 양의 값을 보였으며, Cold tongue El Niño이 아닌 경우에는 모두 음의 값을 보였다. 이를 활용하여 Cold tongue 인 해에 ONI강도에 따라 수량의 변화를 일정수준 예측이가능할 것으로 보인다. After the strongest El Niño since 2015 occurred in 2023, there has been a growing interest in understanding its impacts on rice yield in South Korea. We investigated the impact of El Niño during the rice-growing season on rice yield by analyzing the correlation between detrended rice yield data and ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) values exceeding 0.5. The results show a positive correlation between ONI intensities and detrended rice yields. Furthermore, we found that variations in sunshine duration, precipitation, and typhoon activity affect detrended yield values positively and negatively. This pattern was similar to the classification of El Niño into Cold Tongue El Niño and non-Cold Tongue El Niño, which showed positive and negative detrended rice yield values, respectively. This observation suggests that predicting yield based on ONI intensity during Cold Tongue El Niño years may be feasible to some extent KCI Citation Count: 0 After the strongest El Niño since 2015 occurred in 2023, there has been a growing interest in understanding its impacts on rice yield in South Korea. We investigated the impact of El Niño during the rice-growing season on rice yield by analyzing the correlation between detrended rice yield data and ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) values exceeding 0.5. The results show a positive correlation between ONI intensities and detrended rice yields. Furthermore, we found that variations in sunshine duration, precipitation, and typhoon activity affect detrended yield values positively and negatively. This pattern was similar to the classification of El Niño into Cold Tongue El Niño and non-Cold Tongue El Niño, which showed positive and negative detrended rice yield values, respectively. This observation suggests that predicting yield based on ONI intensity during Cold Tongue El Niño years may be feasible to some extent. 1. 2015년 이후 가장 강한 El Niño가 2023년 발생하여 El Niño가 농업부분에 미치는 영향에 대해서 관심이 높아지고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 쌀 수량에 미치는 영향을 다시 검토할 필요가 있다. 벼의 작기중에 발생한El Niño가 쌀 수량의 증감에 영향을 주는지 규명하기 위해, 추세가 제거된 쌀 수량 자료와 벼 작기중ONI 값이 0.5이상으로 유지된 연도의 자료를 이용하여 이들의 관계를 조사하였다. 그 결과 ONI 강도가 높을수록 추세가 제거된 쌀 수량이 높게 나오는 경향을 확인하였다. 2. 또한 추세 제거 쌀 수량 지수가 양의 값으로 나오는 연도와 음의 값으로 나오는 연도에는 여름 및 가을의 일조시간 및 강수량이 다를 뿐만 아니라 태풍의 영향이 다르다는 것을 확인하였다. 이는 El Niño를 Cold tongue El Niño인 경우와 그렇지 않은 경우로 분류할 때와 유사하였다. Cold tongue El Niño인 경우에는 추세 제거 수량이 양의 값을 보였으며, Cold tongue El Niño이 아닌 경우에는 모두 음의 값을 보였다. 이를 활용하여 Cold tongue인 해에 ONI강도에 따라 수량의 변화를 일정수준 예측이 가능할 것으로 보인다. After the strongest El Niño since 2015 occurred in 2023, there has been a growing interest in understanding its impacts on rice yield in South Korea. We investigated the impact of El Niño during the rice-growing season on rice yield by analyzing the correlation between detrended rice yield data and ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) values exceeding 0.5. The results show a positive correlation between ONI intensities and detrended rice yields. Furthermore, we found that variations in sunshine duration, precipitation, and typhoon activity affect detrended yield values positively and negatively. This pattern was similar to the classification of El Niño into Cold Tongue El Niño and non-Cold Tongue El Niño, which showed positive and negative detrended rice yield values, respectively. This observation suggests that predicting yield based on ONI intensity during Cold Tongue El Niño years may be feasible to some extent. |
| Author | Ju-hee Kim Jae-ki Chnag 조소혜 이현석 Hyeon-seok Lee 양서영 장재기 Jae-kyeong Baek 송영서 Yeong-seo Song 김주희 백재경 Junhwan Kim Ji-young Shon 손지영 Seo-yeong Yang So-hye Cho 김준환 |
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| DocumentTitleAlternate | 벼 작기중 발생한 El Niño와 국내 벼 작황과의 관계 Relationship between Rice Yield in South Korea and El Niño Events that Occurred During the Rice Growing Season |
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| Snippet | After the strongest El Niño since 2015 occurred in 2023, there has been a growing interest in understanding its impacts on rice yield in South Korea. We... 1. 2015년 이후 가장 강한 El Niño가 2023년 발생하여 El Niño가 농업부분에 미치는 영향에 대해서 관심이 높아지고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 쌀 수량에 미치는 영향을다시 검토할 필요가 있다. 벼의 작기중에 발생한El Niño 가 쌀 수량의 증감에 영향을 주는지 규명하기... |
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| SubjectTerms | El Niño Oceanic Niño Index precipitation rice yield sunshine hours 농학 |
| Title | 벼 작기중 발생한 El Niño와 국내 벼 작황과의 관계 |
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