Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters

• Published in: Biostatistics (Oxford, England) Vol. 20; no. 2; pp. 273 - 286
• Main Authors: Wong, Chi Heem, Siah, Kien Wei, Lo, Andrew W
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Oxford University Press 01.04.2019
• Subjects: Biomarkers; Clinical Trials as Topic; Databases, Factual; Drug Development; Humans; Models, Statistical; Outcome Assessment, Health Care - methods; Clinical trial statistics; Clinical phase transition probabilities; Probabilities of success

SUMMARY Previous estimates of drug development success rates rely on relatively small samples from databases curated by the pharmaceutical industry and are subject to potential selection biases. Using a sample of 406 038 entries of clinical trial data for over 21 143 compounds from January 1, 2000 t...