A Method for Evaluating the Future Flood Risk for Railway Networks under Climate Change
Recent concern has grown over the escalating frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change, with significant impacts on railways. This study evaluates the current and future flood risk of Japanese railroads, employing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Findings suggest...
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| Published in | Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Vol. 15; pp. 398 - 417 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
2024
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| Subjects | |
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| Abstract | Recent concern has grown over the escalating frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change, with significant impacts on railways. This study evaluates the current and future flood risk of Japanese railroads, employing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Findings suggest a slight increase in flood risk by the end of the twenty-first century in a sustainable scenario and a substantial increase in a fossil fuel-dependent scenario compared to the end of the twentieth century. These results emphasize the need for proactive measures to mitigate flood damage and enhance railway resilience in Japan's transportation network amid climate change. |
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| AbstractList | Recent concern has grown over the escalating frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change, with significant impacts on railways. This study evaluates the current and future flood risk of Japanese railroads, employing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Findings suggest a slight increase in flood risk by the end of the twenty-first century in a sustainable scenario and a substantial increase in a fossil fuel-dependent scenario compared to the end of the twentieth century. These results emphasize the need for proactive measures to mitigate flood damage and enhance railway resilience in Japan's transportation network amid climate change. |
| Author | TAJIMA, Haruki XU, Feifan KATO, Hirokazu KHALEGHI, Marjan |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: XU, Feifan organization: Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University – sequence: 2 fullname: TAJIMA, Haruki organization: Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd – sequence: 3 fullname: KATO, Hirokazu organization: Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University – sequence: 4 fullname: KHALEGHI, Marjan organization: Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University |
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| Copyright | 2024 Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies |
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| References | Zhu, Weihua, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks. (2022) System Vulnerability to Flood Events and Risk Assessment of Railway Systems Based on National and River Basin Scales in China. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22(5):1519–40. Kikumoto, M., Shimono, K., Itoh, K., Osato, S., Inagaki, H., & Kusakabe, O. (2017) A Unified Risk Index for Natural Disasters. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F6 (Safety Problem), 73(1), 43–57. (in Japanese) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2020) The 3rd JR Hisatsu Line Review Meeting. https://www.mlit.go.jp/tetudo/content/001472024.pdf, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2022) About how to take measures against water disasters based on climate change. (in Japanese) https://www.mlit.go.jp/river/shinngikai_blog/shaseishin/kasenbunkakai/shouiinkai/kikouhendou_suigai/pdf/03_honbun.pdf, Reference date: 2022/12/12 Asahi Shimbun digital (2022) JR Gono Line damaged by heavy rain to resume all lines around 23rd. (in Japanese) https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQD86RPLQD8ULUC00Q.html, Reference date: 2023/1/9 Kominato, Y., Abe, K., & Shinoda, M. (2016) Case Study of Emergency Retrofit Method on Devastated Railway Bridge Piers by Flooding. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE)), 72(2), 332–337. (in Japanese) Seto, Y., Kurauchi, F., Uno, N. (2008) Research on Road Network Connectivity Evaluation Using the Concept of Vulnerability. Proceedings of infrastructure planning (CD-ROM), 37, 130. (in Japanese) Hitachi-systems: Hyper Dia. https://www.hyperdia.com/ja/. Reference date: 2023/1/14 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Digital national land information. https://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/index.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Summary data file. https://www.mlit.go.jp/sogoseisaku/soukou/sogoseisaku_soukou_fr_000018.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 Marteaux, O. (2016) Tomorrow's Railway and Climate Change Adaptation, https://www.adaptationscotland.org.uk/download_file/view_inline/390 National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention : How to assess disaster risk. (in Japanese) https://dil.bosai.go.jp/workshop/03kouza_yosoku/03kouzui.html, Reference date: 2023/1/9 National Institute for Environmental Studies (2017) Publication of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) for cross-sectoral use in climate change research. https://www.nies.go.jp/whatsnew/20170221/20170221.html, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 Taylor, M. A. P., Sekhar, S. V. C., & D’Este, G. M. (2006) Application of Accessibility Based Methods for Vulnerability Analysis of Strategic Road Networks. Networks and Spatial Economics, 6(3), 267–291. Takayama, Y., Kato, H., Park, S., Tajima, H. (2022) A Risk Evaluation of Flood and Sediment Disaster to Highway Network Considering Network Structure. Proceedings of infrastructure planning (CD-ROM), 65, 43–3. (in Japanese) Balica, S. F., N. G. Wright, and F. van der Meulen. (2012) A Flood Vulnerability Index for Coastal Cities and Its Use in Assessing Climate Change Impacts. Natural Hazards 64(1):73–105. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2018) About change of national resilience basic plan. (in Japanese) https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/kokudo_kyoujinka/pdf/kk-honbun-h301214.pdf, Reference date: 2023/1/9 Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Shinjiro Kanae, Sonia I. Seneviratne, John Handmer, Neville Nicholls, Pascal Peduzzi, Reinhard Mechler, Laurens M. Bouwer, Nigel Arnell, Katharine Mach, Robert Muir-Wood, G. Robert Brakenridge, Wolfgang Kron, Gerardo Benito, Yasushi Honda, Kiyoshi Takahashi, and Boris Sherstyukov. (2014) Flood Risk and Climate Change: Global and Regional Perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59(1):1–28. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2018) Disaster prevention and mitigation measures for railways. https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001256849.pdf, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 Nakayama, S., Asakura, Y. (2014) Road Traffic Reliability Assessment, Corona company (in Japanese) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Population projections by municipality according to socio-economic scenarios. (in Japanese) https://adaptation-platform.nies.go.jp/socioeconomic/population.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 Ministry of the Environment (2022) Global warming is not just hot 4. https://ccca-scenario.nies.go.jp/data/jpn_cdfdm/nies2020/pamphlet_4_hres.pdf, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/2/7 Kostianaia, E. A., Kostianoy, A. G., Scheglov, M. A., Karelov, A. I., & Vasileisky, A. S. (2021) Impact of Regional Climate Change on the Infrastructure and Operability of Railway Transport. Transport and Telecommunication Journal, 22(2), 183–195. West Japan Railway Company (2018) Heavy rain in western Japan. https://www.westjr.co.jp/info/gouu_2018/, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 Ishizaki, N. N., (2021) Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan based on CDFDM method using CMIP6, Ver.1.1, NIES, Reference date: 2023/1/9 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2013) Guide to Flood Damage Index Analysis. (in Japanese) https://www.mlit.go.jp/river/basic_info/seisaku_hyouka/gaiyou/hyouka/pdf/higaisihyou_h25.pdf, Reference date: 2023/1/11 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism : Annual Report of Railway Statistics(2019). https://www.mlit.go.jp/tetudo/tetudo_tk2_000053.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 Koetse, Mark J., and Piet Rietveld. (2009) The Impact of Climate Change and Weather on Transport: An Overview of Empirical Findings. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 14(3):205–21. Yanagihara, H., Kazama, S., Tada, T., Yamamoto, T., & Touge, Y. (2022) Changes in Flood Damage Throughout Japan Due to Climate Change and Land-Use Change Using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research), 78(5), I_387-I_395. (in Japanese) |
| References_xml | – reference: Kostianaia, E. A., Kostianoy, A. G., Scheglov, M. A., Karelov, A. I., & Vasileisky, A. S. (2021) Impact of Regional Climate Change on the Infrastructure and Operability of Railway Transport. Transport and Telecommunication Journal, 22(2), 183–195. – reference: West Japan Railway Company (2018) Heavy rain in western Japan. https://www.westjr.co.jp/info/gouu_2018/, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Shinjiro Kanae, Sonia I. Seneviratne, John Handmer, Neville Nicholls, Pascal Peduzzi, Reinhard Mechler, Laurens M. Bouwer, Nigel Arnell, Katharine Mach, Robert Muir-Wood, G. Robert Brakenridge, Wolfgang Kron, Gerardo Benito, Yasushi Honda, Kiyoshi Takahashi, and Boris Sherstyukov. (2014) Flood Risk and Climate Change: Global and Regional Perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59(1):1–28. – reference: National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention : How to assess disaster risk. (in Japanese) https://dil.bosai.go.jp/workshop/03kouza_yosoku/03kouzui.html, Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2020) The 3rd JR Hisatsu Line Review Meeting. https://www.mlit.go.jp/tetudo/content/001472024.pdf, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Koetse, Mark J., and Piet Rietveld. (2009) The Impact of Climate Change and Weather on Transport: An Overview of Empirical Findings. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 14(3):205–21. – reference: Seto, Y., Kurauchi, F., Uno, N. (2008) Research on Road Network Connectivity Evaluation Using the Concept of Vulnerability. Proceedings of infrastructure planning (CD-ROM), 37, 130. (in Japanese) – reference: Kominato, Y., Abe, K., & Shinoda, M. (2016) Case Study of Emergency Retrofit Method on Devastated Railway Bridge Piers by Flooding. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering & Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE)), 72(2), 332–337. (in Japanese) – reference: Marteaux, O. (2016) Tomorrow's Railway and Climate Change Adaptation, https://www.adaptationscotland.org.uk/download_file/view_inline/390 – reference: Yanagihara, H., Kazama, S., Tada, T., Yamamoto, T., & Touge, Y. (2022) Changes in Flood Damage Throughout Japan Due to Climate Change and Land-Use Change Using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research), 78(5), I_387-I_395. (in Japanese) – reference: Ministry of the Environment (2022) Global warming is not just hot 4. https://ccca-scenario.nies.go.jp/data/jpn_cdfdm/nies2020/pamphlet_4_hres.pdf, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/2/7 – reference: Nakayama, S., Asakura, Y. (2014) Road Traffic Reliability Assessment, Corona company (in Japanese) – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism : Annual Report of Railway Statistics(2019). https://www.mlit.go.jp/tetudo/tetudo_tk2_000053.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 – reference: National Institute for Environmental Studies, Population projections by municipality according to socio-economic scenarios. (in Japanese) https://adaptation-platform.nies.go.jp/socioeconomic/population.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 – reference: Hitachi-systems: Hyper Dia. https://www.hyperdia.com/ja/. Reference date: 2023/1/14 – reference: Zhu, Weihua, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks. (2022) System Vulnerability to Flood Events and Risk Assessment of Railway Systems Based on National and River Basin Scales in China. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22(5):1519–40. – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2018) About change of national resilience basic plan. (in Japanese) https://www.cas.go.jp/jp/seisaku/kokudo_kyoujinka/pdf/kk-honbun-h301214.pdf, Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Taylor, M. A. P., Sekhar, S. V. C., & D’Este, G. M. (2006) Application of Accessibility Based Methods for Vulnerability Analysis of Strategic Road Networks. Networks and Spatial Economics, 6(3), 267–291. – reference: National Institute for Environmental Studies (2017) Publication of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) for cross-sectoral use in climate change research. https://www.nies.go.jp/whatsnew/20170221/20170221.html, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2018) Disaster prevention and mitigation measures for railways. https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001256849.pdf, (in Japanese) Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Takayama, Y., Kato, H., Park, S., Tajima, H. (2022) A Risk Evaluation of Flood and Sediment Disaster to Highway Network Considering Network Structure. Proceedings of infrastructure planning (CD-ROM), 65, 43–3. (in Japanese) – reference: Kikumoto, M., Shimono, K., Itoh, K., Osato, S., Inagaki, H., & Kusakabe, O. (2017) A Unified Risk Index for Natural Disasters. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F6 (Safety Problem), 73(1), 43–57. (in Japanese) – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Summary data file. https://www.mlit.go.jp/sogoseisaku/soukou/sogoseisaku_soukou_fr_000018.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 – reference: Asahi Shimbun digital (2022) JR Gono Line damaged by heavy rain to resume all lines around 23rd. (in Japanese) https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQD86RPLQD8ULUC00Q.html, Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Ishizaki, N. N., (2021) Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan based on CDFDM method using CMIP6, Ver.1.1, NIES, Reference date: 2023/1/9 – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2022) About how to take measures against water disasters based on climate change. (in Japanese) https://www.mlit.go.jp/river/shinngikai_blog/shaseishin/kasenbunkakai/shouiinkai/kikouhendou_suigai/pdf/03_honbun.pdf, Reference date: 2022/12/12 – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: Digital national land information. https://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/index.html, Reference date: 2023/1/11 – reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2013) Guide to Flood Damage Index Analysis. (in Japanese) https://www.mlit.go.jp/river/basic_info/seisaku_hyouka/gaiyou/hyouka/pdf/higaisihyou_h25.pdf, Reference date: 2023/1/11 – reference: Balica, S. F., N. G. Wright, and F. van der Meulen. (2012) A Flood Vulnerability Index for Coastal Cities and Its Use in Assessing Climate Change Impacts. Natural Hazards 64(1):73–105. |
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| Title | A Method for Evaluating the Future Flood Risk for Railway Networks under Climate Change |
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