Assessing the Relative Growth in Motorcycle Ownership as compared to the Growth in Private car Ownership: A Cross-country Analysis
Existing empirical evidence points to an inverse U-shaped relationship between motorcycle ownership and per capita income. Motorists tended to select cheaper modes of transportation, such as motorcycles and mopeds under low purchasing power, which promote a greater motorcycle to private car ownershi...
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| Published in | Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Vol. 15; pp. 514 - 533 |
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| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
2024
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| Abstract | Existing empirical evidence points to an inverse U-shaped relationship between motorcycle ownership and per capita income. Motorists tended to select cheaper modes of transportation, such as motorcycles and mopeds under low purchasing power, which promote a greater motorcycle to private car ownership. Contrarily, urbanisation induced long distance travel and this possibly induces a rise in car ownership at a particular level of per capita income. This study assessed the effect of the consumer price index, as the proxy of purchasing power, urbanisation, road density and per capita income on motorcycle to private car ownership. The panel data analysis is applied over the period of 1963-2013 for 76 countries. The main finding of this study indicates that purchasing power, urbanisation and road density played important role on national private vehicle ownership in a country. Policy implications were discussed in the conclusion part of the study. |
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| AbstractList | Existing empirical evidence points to an inverse U-shaped relationship between motorcycle ownership and per capita income. Motorists tended to select cheaper modes of transportation, such as motorcycles and mopeds under low purchasing power, which promote a greater motorcycle to private car ownership. Contrarily, urbanisation induced long distance travel and this possibly induces a rise in car ownership at a particular level of per capita income. This study assessed the effect of the consumer price index, as the proxy of purchasing power, urbanisation, road density and per capita income on motorcycle to private car ownership. The panel data analysis is applied over the period of 1963-2013 for 76 countries. The main finding of this study indicates that purchasing power, urbanisation and road density played important role on national private vehicle ownership in a country. Policy implications were discussed in the conclusion part of the study. |
| Author | LEE, Jin Chai CHU, May Yen LAW, Teik Hua LAW, Siong Hook |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: CHU, May Yen organization: School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society (EGIS), Heriot-Watt University Malaysia – sequence: 2 fullname: LAW, Teik Hua organization: Road Safety Research Centre, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia – sequence: 3 fullname: LAW, Siong Hook organization: Department of Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia – sequence: 4 fullname: LEE, Jin Chai organization: Faculty of Engineering, Technology & Built Environment, UCSI University |
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| Copyright | 2024 Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies |
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| References | Gollin, D., Jedwab, R., Vollrath, D. (2016) Urbanisation with and without industrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, 21, 35-70. Poi, A.W.H., Law, T.H., Hamid, H., Jakarnib, F.M. (2021) Motorcycle to car ownership: The role of road mobility, accessibility and income inequality. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 90, 102650. Ansuategi, A., Escapa, M. (2002) Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Ecological Economics, 40, 23-37. Bento, A.M., Cropper, M.L., Mobarak, A.M., Vinha, K. (2005) The effects of urban spatial structure on travel demand in the United States. Rev. Econ. Stat. 87 (3), 466–478. Alhassan, A.L., Fiador, V. (2014) Insurance-growth nexus in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach. Review of Development Finance, 4, 83-96. Manzoor, M.M., Siddiqui, A.A., Sattar, A., Fahim, M., Rasheed, S. (2011) Impact of inflation on household consumption – a case of Pakistan. Int. Res. J. Finance Econ., 68, 161–167. Chu, M.Y., Law, T.H., Hamid, H., Law, S.H., Lee, J.C. (2020) Examining the effects of urbanization and purchasing power on the relationship between motorcycle ownership and economic development: A panel data, International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology, Available online 7 December 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijtst.2020.12.004. Law, T.H., Noland, R.B., Evans, A.W. (2009) Factors accompanied by the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic expansion. Accident Analysis Prevention, 41 (2), 234–240. Dargay, J., Gately, D. (1999) Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960–2015. Transportation Research Part A: Policy Practice, 33 (2), 101–138. De Vos, J., Witlox, F. (2013) Transportation policy as spatial planning tool; reducing urban sprawl by increasing travel costs and clustering infrastructure and public transportation. Journal of Transport Geography, 33, 117-125. Houston, D.J. (2011) Chapter 27 – Motorcyclists. In E.P. Bryan (Ed.), Handbook of traffic psychology (375-388). San Diego: Academic Press. World Health Organization (2018) WHO statistics. Available at: https://www.who.int/data/collections. accessed in May 2017 Lin, J. (2019) Special issue on “Urbanisation, transportation and air quality in developingcountries”. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 68,1. Klein, N.J., Smart, M.J. (2017) Millennials and car ownership: Less money, fewer cars. Transport Policy, 53, 20-29. Hsiao, C. (2003) Analysis of Panel Data, second ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Anderson, D., Cavendish, W. (2001) Dynamic simulation and environmental policy analysis: beyond comparative static and the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Oxford Economic Papers, 53, 721–746. Ng, C.P., Law, T.H., Wong, S.V., Kulanthayan, S. (2017) Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and economic growth: A cross-country analysis. Transport Policy, 60, 24-43. Ng, C.P.; Law, T.H.; Wong, S.V.; Kulanthayan, S. (2018) Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and urban growth: A panel data analysis. Transportation Research Part A: Policy Practice, 117, 292–301 Vollebergh, H.R.J.,Melenberg, B., E. Dijkgraaf. (2009) Identifying reduced-form relations with panel data: the case of pollution and income. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 58, 27-42. Molana, H. (1990) A note on the effect of inflation on consumers’ expenditure. Empirical Econ., 15 (1), 1–15. Gollin, D., Parente, S.L., Rogerson, R. (2007) The food problem and the evolution of international income levels. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1230-1255. Kuznets, S. (1955) Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 49, 00.1-28. Ingram, G.K., Liu, Z. (1997) Determinants of motorization and road provision. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2042. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Law, T.H., Hamid, H., Goh, C.N. (2015) The motorcycle to private car ownership ratio and economic expansion: a cross-country analysis. J. Transport Geography, 46, 122–128. Stern, D. I. (2010) Between estimates of the emissions-income elasticity. Ecol. Econ., 69 (11), 2173–2182. Vaezghasemi, M., Razak, F., Ng, N. (2016) Inter-individual inequality in BMI: an analysis of Indonesian Family Life Surveys (1993–2007). SSM-Population Health, Elsevier. Wooldridge, J.M. (2002) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Pongthanaisawan, J., Sorapipatana, C. (2010) Relationship between level of economic development and motorcycle and car ownerships and their impacts on fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission in Thailand. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14 (9), 2966–2975. Fontaras, G., Zacharof, N. G., Ciuffo, B. (2017) Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe – Laboratory versus real-world emissions. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 60, 97-131. IRF World Road Statistics (2015) IRF World Road Statistics 2012: Data 2008–2013. International Road Federation, Geneva. Nishitateno, S., Burke, P.J. (2014) The motorcycle Kuznets curve. J. Transport Geography, 36, 116–123. Chauhan, G.S. (2017) Corporate financing and deleveraging of firms in India. IIMB Management Review, 29, 170-187. Wu, T., Zhao, H., Ou, X. (2014) Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050. Sustainability, 6, 4877-4899. Holz-Rau, C., Scheiner, J., Sicks, K. (2014) Travel distances in daily travel and long distance travel: what role is played by urban form? Environ. Plann. A, 46 (2),488–507. Yang, Z.S., Jia, P., Liu, W.D., Yin, H.C. (2017) Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities: A panel data analysis. Journal of Transport Geography, 58, 127-134. Wagner, M. (2008) The carbon Kuznets curve: a cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics. Resource and Energy Economics, 30, 388-408. Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar, Marcel P.Timmer (2015) The Next Generation of the Penn World Table, available for download at www.ggdc.net/pwt. Ivashina, V., Lerner, J. (2019) Pay now or pay later? The economics within the private equity partnership. Journal of Financial Economics, 131(1), 61–87. Sillaparcharn, P. (2007) Vehicle ownership and trip generation modelling: a case study of Thailand. J. Int. Assoc. Traffic Saf. Sci., 31 (2), 17–26. Riley, K. (2002) Motor vehicles in China: the impact of demographic and economic changes. Populat. Environ., 23 (5), 479–494. United Nations Development Programme, 2015. Human Development Index. Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-indexhdi, accessed in May 2017. Zhang, K.H. (2017) Chapter 2- urbanisation and industrial development in China. In: Tang, Z. (Ed.), China’s Urbanisation and Socioeconomic Impact. Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. IRF World Road Statistics (2010) IRF World Road Statistics 2010: Data 1963–2008. International Road Federation, Geneva. World Development Indicators (2018) World Bank World Development Indicators 2018. Accessed at February 11, 2018.http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=1&id=4. Elhorst, J.P. (2010) Spatial panel data models. In: Fischer, M.M., Getis, A. (Eds.), Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis: Software Tools, Methods and Applications. Springer, Berlin, pp. 377–407. Heerink, N., Mulatu, A., Bulte, E. (2001) Income inequality and the environment: aggregation bias in environmental Kuznets curves. Ecological Economics, 38, 359-367. Radin Umar, R.S., Mackay, G.M., Hills, B.L. (1995) Preliminary Analysis of Motorcycle Accidents: Short-Term Impacts of the Running Headlights Campaign and Regulation. Journal of Traffic Medicine, 23, 17-28. |
| References_xml | – reference: IRF World Road Statistics (2010) IRF World Road Statistics 2010: Data 1963–2008. International Road Federation, Geneva. – reference: Ivashina, V., Lerner, J. (2019) Pay now or pay later? The economics within the private equity partnership. Journal of Financial Economics, 131(1), 61–87. – reference: Molana, H. (1990) A note on the effect of inflation on consumers’ expenditure. Empirical Econ., 15 (1), 1–15. – reference: Anderson, D., Cavendish, W. (2001) Dynamic simulation and environmental policy analysis: beyond comparative static and the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Oxford Economic Papers, 53, 721–746. – reference: Zhang, K.H. (2017) Chapter 2- urbanisation and industrial development in China. In: Tang, Z. (Ed.), China’s Urbanisation and Socioeconomic Impact. Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. – reference: IRF World Road Statistics (2015) IRF World Road Statistics 2012: Data 2008–2013. International Road Federation, Geneva. – reference: Bento, A.M., Cropper, M.L., Mobarak, A.M., Vinha, K. (2005) The effects of urban spatial structure on travel demand in the United States. Rev. Econ. Stat. 87 (3), 466–478. – reference: Lin, J. (2019) Special issue on “Urbanisation, transportation and air quality in developingcountries”. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 68,1. – reference: Wu, T., Zhao, H., Ou, X. (2014) Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050. Sustainability, 6, 4877-4899. – reference: Alhassan, A.L., Fiador, V. (2014) Insurance-growth nexus in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach. Review of Development Finance, 4, 83-96. – reference: Vaezghasemi, M., Razak, F., Ng, N. (2016) Inter-individual inequality in BMI: an analysis of Indonesian Family Life Surveys (1993–2007). SSM-Population Health, Elsevier. – reference: Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar, Marcel P.Timmer (2015) The Next Generation of the Penn World Table, available for download at www.ggdc.net/pwt. – reference: Ng, C.P., Law, T.H., Wong, S.V., Kulanthayan, S. (2017) Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and economic growth: A cross-country analysis. Transport Policy, 60, 24-43. – reference: De Vos, J., Witlox, F. (2013) Transportation policy as spatial planning tool; reducing urban sprawl by increasing travel costs and clustering infrastructure and public transportation. Journal of Transport Geography, 33, 117-125. – reference: Law, T.H., Noland, R.B., Evans, A.W. (2009) Factors accompanied by the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic expansion. Accident Analysis Prevention, 41 (2), 234–240. – reference: Sillaparcharn, P. (2007) Vehicle ownership and trip generation modelling: a case study of Thailand. J. Int. Assoc. Traffic Saf. Sci., 31 (2), 17–26. – reference: Houston, D.J. (2011) Chapter 27 – Motorcyclists. In E.P. Bryan (Ed.), Handbook of traffic psychology (375-388). San Diego: Academic Press. – reference: Ingram, G.K., Liu, Z. (1997) Determinants of motorization and road provision. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2042. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. – reference: Pongthanaisawan, J., Sorapipatana, C. (2010) Relationship between level of economic development and motorcycle and car ownerships and their impacts on fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission in Thailand. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14 (9), 2966–2975. – reference: Radin Umar, R.S., Mackay, G.M., Hills, B.L. (1995) Preliminary Analysis of Motorcycle Accidents: Short-Term Impacts of the Running Headlights Campaign and Regulation. Journal of Traffic Medicine, 23, 17-28. – reference: Wooldridge, J.M. (2002) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. – reference: Riley, K. (2002) Motor vehicles in China: the impact of demographic and economic changes. Populat. Environ., 23 (5), 479–494. – reference: Ng, C.P.; Law, T.H.; Wong, S.V.; Kulanthayan, S. (2018) Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and urban growth: A panel data analysis. Transportation Research Part A: Policy Practice, 117, 292–301 – reference: Chu, M.Y., Law, T.H., Hamid, H., Law, S.H., Lee, J.C. (2020) Examining the effects of urbanization and purchasing power on the relationship between motorcycle ownership and economic development: A panel data, International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology, Available online 7 December 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijtst.2020.12.004. – reference: Elhorst, J.P. (2010) Spatial panel data models. In: Fischer, M.M., Getis, A. (Eds.), Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis: Software Tools, Methods and Applications. Springer, Berlin, pp. 377–407. – reference: Dargay, J., Gately, D. (1999) Income’s effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960–2015. Transportation Research Part A: Policy Practice, 33 (2), 101–138. – reference: Law, T.H., Hamid, H., Goh, C.N. (2015) The motorcycle to private car ownership ratio and economic expansion: a cross-country analysis. J. Transport Geography, 46, 122–128. – reference: Ansuategi, A., Escapa, M. (2002) Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Ecological Economics, 40, 23-37. – reference: Gollin, D., Parente, S.L., Rogerson, R. (2007) The food problem and the evolution of international income levels. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1230-1255. – reference: Wagner, M. (2008) The carbon Kuznets curve: a cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics. Resource and Energy Economics, 30, 388-408. – reference: United Nations Development Programme, 2015. Human Development Index. Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-indexhdi, accessed in May 2017. – reference: Yang, Z.S., Jia, P., Liu, W.D., Yin, H.C. (2017) Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities: A panel data analysis. Journal of Transport Geography, 58, 127-134. – reference: Heerink, N., Mulatu, A., Bulte, E. (2001) Income inequality and the environment: aggregation bias in environmental Kuznets curves. Ecological Economics, 38, 359-367. – reference: Vollebergh, H.R.J.,Melenberg, B., E. Dijkgraaf. (2009) Identifying reduced-form relations with panel data: the case of pollution and income. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 58, 27-42. – reference: Chauhan, G.S. (2017) Corporate financing and deleveraging of firms in India. IIMB Management Review, 29, 170-187. – reference: Holz-Rau, C., Scheiner, J., Sicks, K. (2014) Travel distances in daily travel and long distance travel: what role is played by urban form? Environ. Plann. A, 46 (2),488–507. – reference: Fontaras, G., Zacharof, N. G., Ciuffo, B. (2017) Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe – Laboratory versus real-world emissions. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 60, 97-131. – reference: World Health Organization (2018) WHO statistics. Available at: https://www.who.int/data/collections. accessed in May 2017 – reference: Nishitateno, S., Burke, P.J. (2014) The motorcycle Kuznets curve. J. Transport Geography, 36, 116–123. – reference: Kuznets, S. (1955) Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 49, 00.1-28. – reference: Klein, N.J., Smart, M.J. (2017) Millennials and car ownership: Less money, fewer cars. Transport Policy, 53, 20-29. – reference: Poi, A.W.H., Law, T.H., Hamid, H., Jakarnib, F.M. (2021) Motorcycle to car ownership: The role of road mobility, accessibility and income inequality. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 90, 102650. – reference: Manzoor, M.M., Siddiqui, A.A., Sattar, A., Fahim, M., Rasheed, S. (2011) Impact of inflation on household consumption – a case of Pakistan. Int. Res. J. Finance Econ., 68, 161–167. – reference: Stern, D. I. (2010) Between estimates of the emissions-income elasticity. Ecol. Econ., 69 (11), 2173–2182. – reference: Gollin, D., Jedwab, R., Vollrath, D. (2016) Urbanisation with and without industrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, 21, 35-70. – reference: Hsiao, C. (2003) Analysis of Panel Data, second ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. – reference: World Development Indicators (2018) World Bank World Development Indicators 2018. Accessed at February 11, 2018.http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=1&id=4. |
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| Title | Assessing the Relative Growth in Motorcycle Ownership as compared to the Growth in Private car Ownership: A Cross-country Analysis |
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