A Study on Exponential Smoothing Model for Load Forecasting

Exponential smoothing model is one of the main load forecasting models of power systems, the accuracy of the model depends on smoothing coefficient. In this paper, a study on how to seek the best smoothing coefficient is given. The results show that using the principle of weighting more on near data...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in2012 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference pp. 1 - 4
Main Authors Ji Peirong, Xiong Di, Wang Peng, Chen Juan
Format Conference Proceeding
LanguageEnglish
Published IEEE 01.03.2012
Subjects
Accuracy
Forecasting
Load forecasting
Load modeling
Predictive models
Smoothing methods
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ISBN9781457705458
1457705451
ISSN2157-4839
DOI10.1109/APPEEC.2012.6307555

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Summary:Exponential smoothing model is one of the main load forecasting models of power systems, the accuracy of the model depends on smoothing coefficient. In this paper, a study on how to seek the best smoothing coefficient is given. The results show that using the principle of weighting more on near data and weighting less on far data to seek the optimal smoothing coefficient can get a better result. Based on the result, a method of how to weight more on near data and weight less on far data is proposed. A practical example of load forecasting with the method is also shown here.
ISBN:9781457705458
1457705451
ISSN:2157-4839
DOI:10.1109/APPEEC.2012.6307555