Prediction Model for Petroleum Consumption in India using the Best Fit Model concept

• Published in: 2021 5th International Conference on Information Systems and Computer Networks (ISCON) pp. 1 - 6
• Main Authors: Singh Pundhir, Shiv Kumar, Agrawal, Anand Mohan
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: IEEE 22.10.2021
• Subjects: Air pollution; Analytical models; Curve of Best Fit; Forecast accuracy; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Oils; Petroleum consumption; Predictive models; Transportation; Urban areas
• DOI: 10.1109/ISCON52037.2021.9702361

Petroleum consumption is an important factor for any country's economic and social growth. In India, petroleum consumption is increasing rapidly. India holds the third rank in oil consumption after the USA and China. One of the important sectors of oil consumption in India is the transportation sector. Since in India the number of vehicles registration is also increasing, we can expect more consumption of oil in the future. We can also see the negative impacts of so much consumption of petroleum on air quality. India's capital holds the third rank worldwide in air pollution. India holds third rank worldwide in air pollution. Twenty-two of the world's most polluted cities are in India. So this is the time when India should plan for future oil consumption. In this work, a mathematical model is developed for the prediction of future oil demand. Past twenty years historical data for years 2000 to 2019 is analyzed and using scatter diagram and method of the least square best fit curve is developed. To verify the mathematical model forecast accuracy is also checked using MAPE, MAD, and TS concepts.