Turkey-Russia energy relations: The limits of forging cooperation through economic interdependence
The multifaceted energy relations between Turkey and Russia offer a crucial case to study the changing priorities of Turkish foreign policy and the limits of this transformation. Turkey has adopted cooperative policies based on a positive-sum logic and downplayed competitive negative-sum calculation...
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| Published in | International journal (Toronto) Vol. 67; no. 1; pp. 81 - 100 |
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| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Toronto
Canadian International Council
22.12.2011
Sage Publications Ltd. (UK) Sage Publications Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | The multifaceted energy relations between Turkey and Russia offer a crucial case to study the changing priorities of Turkish foreign policy and the limits of this transformation. Turkey has adopted cooperative policies based on a positive-sum logic and downplayed competitive negative-sum calculations. Within this new approach to international relations, Turkey seeks to use interdependencies forged through economic exchanges as a tool to dampen political disputes and induce positive transformation in the behaviour of its partners. The transformation of Turkish-Russian relations from adversity to managed competition and the current phase of multidimensional partnership owes a great deal to the economic interdependence imparted most crucially by energy cooperation. Turkey's pursuit of a more independent approach vis-a-vis the west and its forging of closer economic and political relations with its northern neighbour Russia are a testament to the success of its new foreign policy vision, which also values cooperation with its immediate neighbours. As this article will argue, Russia's failure to deliver on Turkey's expectations in both energy and neighbourhood issues exposes the limitations of this new approach. The return to competitive dynamics after the parties reached a historic grand bargain in energy cooperation in 2009 clearly reveals the boundaries of Turkey's positive-sum approach to energy cooperation with Russia. Adapted from the source document. |
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| AbstractList | The multifaceted energy relations between Turkey and Russia offer a crucial case to study the changing priorities of Turkish foreign policy and the limits of this transformation. Turkey has adopted cooperative policies based on a positive-sum logic and downplayed competitive negative-sum calculations. Within this new approach to international relations, Turkey seeks to use interdependencies forged through economic exchanges as a tool to dampen political disputes and induce positive transformation in the behaviour of its partners. The transformation of Turkish-Russian relations from adversity to managed competition and the current phase of multidimensional partnership owes a great deal to the economic interdependence imparted most crucially by energy cooperation. Turkey's pursuit of a more independent approach vis-a-vis the west and its forging of closer economic and political relations with its northern neighbour Russia are a testament to the success of its new foreign policy vision, which also values cooperation with its immediate neighbours. As this article will argue, Russia's failure to deliver on Turkey's expectations in both energy and neighbourhood issues exposes the limitations of this new approach. The return to competitive dynamics after the parties reached a historic grand bargain in energy cooperation in 2009 clearly reveals the boundaries of Turkey's positive-sum approach to energy cooperation with Russia. Adapted from the source document. A long-standing debate on expanding Blue Stream neatly illustrates Russia's thinking on the subject. While Turkey raised the possibility of using Blue Stream for gas shipments to Europe in the price negotiations for its imports from Russia, Russia declined those proposals in 2005. Interestingly, when the European countries decided to accelerate work on Nabucco following the 2006 gas crisis, Russia proposed Blue Stream II as an east-west line. Turkey was reluctant to take up this idea, reflecting its commitment to Nabucco at the time, and instead argued for the development of Blue Stream II as part of a north-south corridor to carry Russian gas to the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets, particularly Israel. Later, Russia proposed South Stream, its own project to undermine Nabucco, which would have bypassed Turkey altogether. In the summer of 2009, as Turkey finally was about to bridge its differences with the EU over the Nabucco project, Russia again brought to the table an alternative project to involve Turkey. In the package deal of 2009, Russia offered to reformulate Blue Stream II as part of a putative north-south corridor and committed to support Turkey's Samsun-Ceyhan bypass oil pipeline, in return for Turkey's permission to reroute South Stream through Turkey's territorial waters in the Black Sea and granting of the tender for the construction of its first nuclear power plant to a Russian consortium. More importantly, Turkey demonstrated that it considered Russia to be a potential partner in energy issues. Following the 2009 deal, therefore, Turkey apparently opted for a special energy dialogue with Russia, similar to the one that exists between Russia and Germany. Turkey entertained the idea that mutually beneficial cooperation and a serious long-term partnership with Russia might be possible. Through its constructive attitude towards the projects Russia deemed strategically important, Ankara sought to accomplish several interrelated objectives. First, in line with its emphasis on positive-sum strategies, it viewed prospective joint projects with Moscow as another way to become an energy hub. In this context, in addition to joining Russia's natural gas projects, Turkey also solicited Russia's support for pipeline projects such as Samsun-Ceyhan to bolster its position in oil markets. Second, Turkey hoped to ease its dependence on Russia. In return for its support for Russian projects, Turkey expected the revision of the terms of natural gas imports, which has become a huge burden on the Turkish economy. Last but not least, Turkey calculated that deepening economic and energy ties would make Russia more cooperative in neighbourhood issues and convince it to back Turkey's regional initiatives in the Black Sea and Caucasus. Second, Turkey failed to use economic interdependence as leverage against Russia as it sought to fix the asymmetrical nature of economic and energy relations. The delays in authorization for South Stream were also partly related to Ankara's request to renew the terms of its natural gas imports from Russia. In response to Turkey's complaints about high prices and take-or-pay conditions, [Putin] said in the 2009 accord that a supply contract scheduled to expire in 2011 would be renewed on favourable terms to Turkey. Ankara confronted the problem of over-contracting, which emerged as a major issue following the contraction of its energy consumption in the wake of the global financial crisis. Turkey's demand for price revision largely fell on deaf ears in Moscow. In October 2011, after the failure of its lastditch effort, Turkey decided not to renew the supply contract. Turkey hoped that the private sector would take over the same import commitments, but short of any progress, the government eventually agreed to renew the supply contract. Interestingly, this renewal came through another quid pro quo at the end of 2011. In return for Turkey's renewal of the contract and removal of objections to South Stream's progress, which Putin described as a valuable new year's gift, Russia arguably agreed to some minor price revisions. Since there was no Russian commitment regarding Samsun-Ceyhan, it fell short of the quid pro quo of 2009. Hence, the December 2011 deal reiterates one point made earlier: Turkey has yet to reap strategic dividends from its energy partnership with Russia, epitomized by the [Recep Tayyip Erdogan]- Putin summit of 2009. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Kardaş, Şaban |
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| Snippet | A long-standing debate on expanding Blue Stream neatly illustrates Russia's thinking on the subject. While Turkey raised the possibility of using Blue Stream... The multifaceted energy relations between Turkey and Russia offer a crucial case to study the changing priorities of Turkish foreign policy and the limits of... |
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| SubjectTerms | Analysis Bilateral economic relations Boundaries Collaboration Economic interdependence Economic policy Energy Energy policy Foreign Policy Gas industry Geopolitics Interdependence International Cooperation International Relations Natural gas pipelines Oil pipelines Policy making Political analysis Political economy Rivalry Russia Russian Federation Strategic planning Transportation Turkey Values |
| Title | Turkey-Russia energy relations: The limits of forging cooperation through economic interdependence |
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